2024Q3 经营业绩承压，集团ASP 同环比向上。2024Q3 集团营业总收入1457.96 亿元，同/环比-25.91%/+2.95%；Q3 归母净利润2.80 亿元，同/环比-93.53%/-92.86%；Q3 扣非归母净利润0.29亿元，同比-99.23%，环比转正。2024Q3 实现毛利137.52 亿元，同/环比-31.3%/+21.3%；毛利率9.65%，同/环比-0.8pct/+1.4pct。Incidents:
SAIC Motor Group released its report for the third quarter of 2024 on October 30, 2024: The company achieved total revenue of 430.482 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, or -17.74% year-on-year. In the first three quarters of 2024, net profit to mother was 6.907 billion yuan, or -39.45%; net profit after deduction was 1.05 billion yuan, -88.92% YoY; and the company's total sales volume for the first three quarters of 2024 was 2.6493 million vehicles, or -21.56% YoY.
Investment highlights:
2024Q3 business performance was under pressure, and the Group ASP increased year-on-month. 2024Q3 Group's total revenue was 145.796 billion yuan, -25.91%/+2.95%; Q3 net profit to mother was 0.28 billion yuan, -93.53%/-92.86% month-on-month; Q3 net profit not attributable to mother was 0.029 billion yuan, -99.23% year-on-year, positive month-on-month. 2024Q3 achieved gross profit of 13.752 billion yuan, -31.3%/+21.3% month-on-month; gross profit margin 9.65%, month-on-month -0.8pct/+1.4pct.
The pressure on the company's performance is mainly due to the decline in the fuel vehicle market and the fierce price war.
The 2024Q3 Group's average bicycle revenue (ASP) was 0.1734 million yuan, or +2.66/+0.0342 million yuan month-on-month. 2024Q3's sales/management/R&D/finance cost rates were 4.80%/3.85%/2.70%/0.37%, respectively, +0.69pct/+0.78pct/+0.46pct/+0.21pct, year-on-year, and +0.40pct/+0.53pct/+0.01pct/+0.16pct, respectively.
The 2024Q3 joint venture car series is under pressure, and the sales volume of high-end autonomous smart self increased. The total sales volume of the 2024Q3 SAIC Motor Group was 0.8224 million vehicles, or -37.02%/-17.17% month-on-month, respectively. The decrease in sales volume was mainly due to pressure on joint venture models. 1) In terms of joint ventures: SAIC-GM, SAIC-Volkswagen and other joint venture brands saw a significant drop in sales. By brand, SAIC-Volkswagen 2024Q3 sold 0.26 million vehicles, -20.98%/-1.52%; SAIC-GM 2024Q3 sold 5.29 units, -80.64%/-53.62% month-on-month; SAIC-GM-Wuling Q3 sold 0.27 million vehicles, -26.29%/-21.97% month-on-month. 2024Q3 companies' return on joint ventures was 1.06 billion yuan, -62.31% year over year, a significant improvement over the previous month. 2) Autonomy: SAIC Motor's share of sales of its own brands continued to rise. The 2024Q3 sold 0.2273 million vehicles, accounting for 27.64%, or +2.72 pct/month-on-month. Among them, SAIC Motor sold 0.1465 million units in 2024Q3, or -38.90%/-14.99%; Zhiji Auto sold 0.015 million units, +182.18%/+20.79% month-on-month, and the Zhiji Auto brand delivered more than 4,500 vehicles in September, an increase of more than 150% year-on-year.
The company's overseas business is steady, and the transformation to autonomous intelligent electric power can be expected. SAIC Motor Group's overseas sales increased steadily. Overseas sales of the 2024Q3 were 0.2513 million vehicles, -17.45%/-3.77% YoY, accounting for 30.56% of overseas sales, and +7.24pct/month-on-month. Major models such as SAIC's MG ZS won the Chinese overseas single product championship in Spain, Australia, etc., and the MG brand's cumulative delivery volume in Europe from January to September 2024 exceeded 0.18 million vehicles. Furthermore, the company is deeply researching core technology to enable products, and the electric transformation is progressing smoothly. 2024Q3 sold 0.287 million new energy vehicles, +3.68%/14.39% month-on-month, new energy accounting for 34.90%, and +13.70pct/month-on-month. With the support of intelligent electric technology, the sales performance of independent products is outstanding. The Zhiji LS6 is equipped with a nationwide NoA. Since its launch on September 26, the highest number of daily locks has exceeded 1,600 units. The Roewe D series is equipped with a new generation of DMH super hybrid systems, and sales increased 12.6% month-on-month in September. It is expected that various models under the Roewe and MG brands will be launched before the end of 2024, which is expected to help increase sales.
Profit forecasts and investment rating companies are under pressure in the short term, but SAIC Motor's autonomous new energy transformation is progressing smoothly, and overseas business remains strong. We expect the company to achieve operating income of 607.7, 667.7, and 718.4 billion yuan in 2024-2026, with year-on-year growth rates of -18%, 10%, and 8%; achieving net profit to mother of 8.927, 10., 11.179 billion yuan, and a year-on-year growth rate of -37%, 22%, 2%; EPS was 0.77, 0.94, 0.97 yuan, corresponding to the previous year The PE valuation of the stock price is 17, 14, and 13 times, respectively. Although the company's profits are under pressure in the short term, there have been breakthroughs in the transformation process. We are optimistic about the company's future development in the long term, covered for the first time, and gave it an “increase in wealth” rating.
Risks suggest that the sales growth rate of automobiles (new energy vehicles) falls short of expectations; the company's electrification transformation falls short of expectations; the company's joint venture development of new products is uncertain; the high-end process of independent brands falls short of expectations; and the profitability of independent brands falls short of expectations.
