前瞻布局，低空经济业务在多地开花：公司前瞻布局低空及车路云等新质生产力方向，凭借国资背景及技术优势快速拓展，中标承接了深圳、无锡、中山、江门等城市低空航空器起降设施布局规划项目、深圳市直升机起降设施升级改造方案及电动垂直起降航空器（eVTOL）起降设施建设指引研究、无锡市低空经济发展规划及实施方案（二次）等项目，成为《山东高速集团低空经济产业发展规划报告》编制服务单位第一中标候选人，并积极与华东、华南、西南、华北等区域多个重点城市及深圳各区对接，共同策划推进低空经济建设与发展的相关项目。Incident: Shenzhen Communications released its 2024 three-quarter report. From January to September '24, the company achieved revenue/net profit attributable to mothers/net profit without return to mother was 0.78/0.06/0.04 billion yuan, respectively, -11.6%/+13.2%/+64.8% compared with the same period last year. The 24Q3 company achieved revenue/ net profit attributable to mothers/ net profit after deducting non-net profit of 0.32/0.07/0.06 billion yuan, respectively, or -3.3%/+75.1%/+89.8% year-on-year.
Comment:
Big data software and smart transportation businesses are developing rapidly, and gross margins have increased significantly: the company's customers are mainly government units, and revenue growth is still under pressure in the face of tight local finances. However, with the rapid development of big data software and smart transportation services, or due to continued quantitative growth in this business sector, the company's gross margin increased markedly, which in turn drove the company's performance to grow against the trend. From January to September '24, the company's gross sales margin/net margin was 33.6%/5.8%, up 5.6/0.8pcts. From January to September '24, the company's expense ratio increased by 1.9 pct to 24.9%, and the sales/management/finance/R&D expenses ratio was 3.2%/11.8%/-0.3%/10.2%, +0.9/-0.2/+1.3 pct compared to the previous year. From January to September '24, the company's net operating cash outflow was 0.44 billion yuan, an increase of 0.21 billion yuan over the same period last year.
Forward-looking layout, low-altitude economy business is blossoming in many places: The company's forward-looking layout and new productivity trends such as low-altitude and road clouds, rapidly expanded with its state-owned background and technical advantages, and won the bid to undertake low-altitude aircraft take-off and landing facility layout planning projects in Shenzhen, Wuxi, Zhongshan, Jiangmen and other cities, Shenzhen helicopter take-off and landing facility upgrading plans, and electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft (eVTOL) take-off and landing facility construction guidelines research, and the “Shandong High-Speed Group Low-Altitude Economic Development Plan and Implementation Plan (II)). The service unit that prepared the “Report” won the bid first The candidates also actively connect with key cities in East China, South China, Southwest China, North China and various districts in Shenzhen to jointly plan projects to promote the construction and development of the low-altitude economy.
The Shenzhen Intelligent Connected Transportation Association was jointly established to help develop the Shenzhen Vehicle Road Cloud business: In July '24, Shenzhen was selected as a pilot city list for the “Vehicle Road Cloud Integration” application. On October 25, the Shenzhen Intelligent Connected Transportation Association was unveiled. The company actively lays out integrated urban transportation infrastructure, AI computing power, and information infrastructure centered on cloud networks, and co-founded the Shenzhen Intelligent Connected Transportation Association with 8 organizations including Huawei, BYD, and Meituan. With the advancement of the “vehicle-road cloud integration” pilot business in Shenzhen, the company's business orders are expected to continue to grow. At the same time, it can also accumulate mature experience to replicate external transportation, further expand markets outside the province and accelerate the company's growth.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: Although the company's operating performance improved in the first three quarters under local financial pressure, the company's operating pressure for the first three quarters was still obvious. We lowered the company's 24/25/26 net profit forecast to 0.168/0.208/0.251 billion yuan (5.1%/0.5%/1.2% reduction); the company continues to develop the low-altitude economy and “car-road cloud integration”, which is expected to obtain more orders to support continued growth in performance and maintain the company's “gain” rating.
Risk warning: Implementation of subsequent policies fell short of expectations, and repayment improvements fell short of expectations.
