This week, China has opened up visa-free entry policies for South Korea and nine other countries, further expanding the visa-free scope, which is favorable for the continuous recovery of our country's international aviation routes.
According to the Wisdom Financial APP, Zhongyou Securities released research reports stating that the third quarter reports of the transportation sector have been disclosed. In the aviation, airport express, railway, and highway sectors, the aviation sector continues to recover in passenger flow, but price performance is weak. Most airlines' performance declined in the third quarter, with China Express Airlines and Hainan Airlines Holding achieving growth. As for the airport sector, passenger flow at various airports continues to increase, but non-aviation income performance is weaker than expected. Express logistics business volume is showing good momentum, with continuous optimization of costs by various express delivery companies. S.F. Holding's performance exceeded expectations, and YTO Express Group's express delivery performance showed steady growth. The railway and highway sector is relatively weak in its cyclicality. Despite macroeconomic fluctuations, the performance of various companies has remained relatively stable.
The main opinions of Zhongyou Securities are as follows:
Shipping sector: This week, the shipping freight rate index rebounded on a weekly basis, while the oil shipping rate index declined, and the dry bulk shipping rate index fell slightly.
In terms of shipping indices, the SCFI comprehensive index reported 2303.44 points this week, up 5.4% on a weekly basis; for oil shipping, the BDTI index reported 957 points this week, down 7.6% weekly; as for dry bulk cargo, the BDI index reported 1378 points this week, down 2.3% weekly.
Aviation sector: All airlines performed well in terms of cargo volume and passenger load factor in the third quarter, but prices have declined year-on-year, leading to declining performance for most airlines in the third quarter.
Entering the traditional off-peak season for civil aviation, flight volume and fares are relatively flat. This week, China has opened up visa-free entry policies for South Korea and nine other countries, further expanding the visa-free scope, which is favorable for the continuous recovery of our country's international aviation routes. Despite the current relatively flat civil aviation fares, due to the decrease in oil prices, the performance pressure for various airlines in the fourth quarter is expected to be alleviated to a certain extent.
The bank believes that the industry supply constraints will remain strong in the next three years. On the demand side, although the recovery of the public and commercial aviation demand still needs time, with the gradual economic recovery, the supply-demand relationship of civil aviation is expected to continuously improve, lifting the industry's profit level. Continuously recommending the most profitable Spring Airlines, recommending China Express Airlines, and Juneyao Airlines.
Airport sector: Both passenger traffic and business volume have doubled, with revenue and performance slightly below expectations.
Various airports have announced third-quarter performance reports. Although airport passenger traffic continues to grow, due to the operational pressure of non-aviation business under the pressure of consumption, the business volume of various airports has increased slightly, and revenue and performance are slightly below expectations. China's visa-free policy continues to relax, benefiting airport inbound passenger traffic growth in the long run.
In the short term, the airport sector's stock prices may follow the overall trend of the consumer sector more, while in the long term, the impact of capital expenditure on long-term performance still remains uncertain. It is recommended to closely monitor the cost and related transaction disturbances of the expansion projects of various airports in the next few years. Focus on Shanghai International Airport, Shenzhen Airport, and Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport.
Express logistics: Business volume maintains high-speed growth, reducing costs and improving unit profitability.
Various express delivery companies have intensively disclosed the third-quarter reports for 2024. In the third quarter, China's express delivery business volume maintained rapid growth, with a single quarter volume of 43.61 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 20.1%. Express delivery price competition remains fierce, but companies actively reduce costs, and unit costs continue to decline with overall good performance. In October, the growth rate of express delivery pickups remains high, showing no signs of slowing down.
The State Post Bureau proposes to 'deter internal competition' in express delivery. With the gradual peak of capital expenditure by various express delivery companies, there is no longer a basis for vicious price wars. The bank still sees continuous business volume growth driving the scale of revenue for various express delivery companies, while reducing costs and improving unit profitability, with a first recommendation for ZTO Express, recommending S.F. Holding, YTO Express Group, and focusing on Yunda Holding and STO Express Co., Ltd. In the logistics sector, pay attention to Deppon Logistics, ANE Logistics, Sinotrans Limited, and East China Logistics.
Railway Highways: Railway highways are cyclically weak, despite macroeconomic fluctuations, but the performance of various companies has remained relatively stable.
The marketization of railway passenger and freight operations is continuously advancing, and it is expected to further deepen reform, which is bullish for the performance of listed companies. The Third Plenum proposed to promote the optimization of toll road policies, following the 'user pays' principle to optimize relevant policies.
Currently, the average remaining operation period of listed expressway companies is around 12 years. If the future concession period for new construction and expansion of road assets can be extended, it will be bullish for the sustainable operational capabilities of listed expressway companies. Certain high-quality listed companies in the long-cycle road and railway sector have both weak cyclical and high dividend attributes, and still have the potential to outperform. Recommended companies include China Merchants Expressway, Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway, and attention to Guangshen Railway.
Investment advice
Recommendations include Spring Airlines (601021.SH), China Express Airlines (002928.SZ), ZTO Express (02057), S.F. Holding (002352.SZ), YTO Express Group (600233.SH), Juneyao Airlines (603885.SH), Sto Express Co., Ltd. (002468.SZ), Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway (601816.SH), China Merchants Expressway (001965.SZ), with a focus on Eastern Airlines Logistics (601156.SH), Yunda Holding (002120.SZ), Sinotrans Limited (601598.SH), Guangshen Railway (601333.SH), ANE Logistics (09956), Deppon Logistics (603056.SH), Air China Limited (601111.SH).
Risk Warning: Macro-economic growth below expectations, drastic fluctuations in oil prices and exchange rates, lower-than-expected express shipments, lower-than-expected road and rail traffic volume of passengers and freight.
