投资建议：维持“增持”评级。维持公司 2024-2026 年EPS预测为1.58、1.79、2.13 元，考虑到国内市场需求受益于政策提振、预期有所修复带动板块整体估值回升，且公司作为酵母及衍生品龙头、海外业务在行业中具备较强成长性，参考可比公司给予2025 年25XPE，上调目标价至44.8 元。Introduction to this report:
The company's 24Q3 performance improved significantly month-on-month. Domestic benefits from the growth of small-packaged yeast and YE products to achieve month-on-month improvements. Overseas business continues to grow at a high rate, and shipping costs are expected to gradually decline.
Key points of investment:
Investment advice: Maintain an “Overweight” rating. Maintain the company's 2024-2026 EPS forecast at 1.58, 1.79, and 2.13 yuan. Considering that domestic market demand is benefiting from policy boosting, the sector's overall valuation recovery is expected to rise, and the company's overseas business as a leader in yeast and derivatives, has strong growth potential in the industry. Refer to the comparable company that gave 25XPE in 2025, raising the target price to 44.8 yuan.
The results slightly exceeded expectations. 2024Q1-3 achieved revenue of 10.912 billion yuan, +13.04% year over year, net profit to mother of 0.953 billion yuan, +4.23% year over year, after deducting non-net profit of 0.839 billion yuan, and +3.44% year over year.
2024Q3's revenue for a single quarter was 3.738 billion yuan, +27.14% year over year, net profit to mother 0.262 billion yuan, +7.02% year over year, after deducting non-net profit of 0.243 billion yuan and +21.60% year over year. Revenue exceeded expectations, and the small increase in non-prior profit was mainly due to a decrease in government subsidies.
The main domestic business improved, and the overseas trend continued. 2024Q3's yeast and deep processing/sugar production/packaging/other business revenue is +17.8%/+16.3%/+76.5%, respectively. Among the leading products, yeast-derived categories are expected to grow faster, small packages benefit from home consumption. Large-package baking yeast has improved in low base, and food ingredients in other businesses are expected to grow faster; domestic/foreign revenue is +20.7%/+30.2%, respectively. Sales of some leading products in the domestic market improved significantly from month to month after price adjustments; offline/online revenue compared to +25.3%, respectively. /+22.0% The gross margin of 2024Q3 was -3.6 pct to 21.4% year on year. It is expected that the cost of raw materials such as molasses will continue to decline, but the impact of the rise in short-term shipping costs is more obvious. The 24Q3 sales/management/R&D/finance expense ratios were -0.1/-0.9/-1.2/+0.1pct, respectively. The decline in management R&D rates is expected to be mainly due to an increase in personnel efficiency, and the net profit margin to mother is -1.3 pct to 7.0% year over year.
The competitiveness of the leaders is showing, and profits are expected to gradually improve. After adjusting the price strategy, the company's domestic sales share is expected to increase, and its competitiveness is prominent. Overseas localized sales personnel and production capacity layout are reaping results and continuing to grow well. There is a high probability that the overall downward trend in domestic and foreign molasses costs will continue. Sea freight rates may be expected to gradually fall from their high point starting in 2024Q4, catalyzing an improvement in profit margins.
Risk warning: increased market competition, rising raw material costs, food safety issues.
