内存接口芯片盈利新高，AI“运力”芯片快速起量。澜起科技是内存接口芯片的龙头企业之一，2024 年Q3，公司在该领域盈利快速增长，互联类芯片营收到达8.48 亿元，单季度营收历史新高，同比增长46.02%。在出片产品类型方面，公司DDR5 第二子代RCD 芯片出货量超过其第一子代产品，第三子代芯片将于2024 下半年开始规模出货，DDR5 出货量将有望超过 DDR4。且随着AI 产业发展，公司“运力”芯片逐渐贡献新的业绩弹性。当前1）PCIe retimer 产品已实现出货，且公司正积极推进PCIe 6.0 retimer 芯片研发，预计将在2025-2026 年推出；2）MRCD/MDB 产品：已开始在国外主流云计算厂商量产，预计2025 年开始从试用转化为商用；3）CKD 产品：已于2024 年上半年实现试产和小规模出货，预计将于2024Q4 开始逐步上量。多款公司主要的高性能芯片实现规模出片，有望为公司带来较大的利润弹性。Incidents:
The company released its results report for the third quarter of 2024. As of the third quarter of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 2.571 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 68.56%; net profit to mother of 0.978 billion yuan, an increase of 318.42%; net profit after deducting non-attributable net profit of 0.874 billion yuan, an increase of 460.88% year-on-year. In the third quarter, revenue was 0.906 billion yuan, up 51.60% year on year, down 2.35% month on month; net profit to mother was 0.385 billion yuan, up 153.40% year on year, up 4.10% month on month; net profit after deducting non-return to mother was 0.33 billion yuan, up 116.83% year on year, up 1.51% month on month.
Comment:
Memory interface chips have reached a new high profit, and AI “capacity” chips are starting quickly. Lanqi Technology is one of the leading companies in memory interface chips. In Q3 of 2024, the company's profits in this field grew rapidly. Connected chip revenue reached 0.848 billion yuan, a record high in revenue in a single quarter, with a year-on-year increase of 46.02%. In terms of product types released, the company's DDR5 second-generation RCD chip shipments surpass that of its first-generation products. Third-generation chip shipments will begin on a large scale in the second half of 2024, and DDR5 shipments are expected to surpass DDR4. Furthermore, with the development of the AI industry, the company's “capacity” chips are gradually contributing to new performance elasticity. Currently 1) PCIe retimer products have been shipped, and the company is actively promoting PCIe 6.0 retimer chip development, which is expected to be launched in 2025-2026; 2) MRCD/MDB products: mass production has begun in mainstream cloud computing vendors abroad, and is expected to begin trial conversion to commercial use in 2025; 3) CKD products: trial production and small-scale shipments have been achieved in the first half of 2024, and are expected to gradually increase in volume in 2024Q4. Many of the company's main high-performance chips have been released on a large scale, which is expected to bring greater profit flexibility to the company.
Innovation-oriented new products are frequently introduced, and many products are leading the country. Since 2024, the company has made breakthroughs in the development of various types of chips: 1) launched a DDR5 fourth-generation RCD chip supporting a rate of 7,200 MT/s; 2) became one of the only two DDR5 first-generation MRCD/MDB chip suppliers in the world that supports 8800 MT/s; 3) pioneered trial production and large-scale production of clock driver (CKD) chips, with a data rate of over 6400 MT/s, leading the industry; 4) The company became the world's first MXC to pass the CXL Alliance test Chip manufacturer, the product was used in Samsung's first 128GB DRAM that supports CXL 2.0. Furthermore, the company is keenly aware of the demand for high-performance, high-security, and low-energy chips in the field of information security, and has released data protection and trusted computing acceleration chips. A number of products go hand in hand, opening up room for the company's future growth.
Profit forecast and investment rating: We expect the company to achieve net profit of 1.371/1.913/2.637 billion yuan in 2024/2025/2026, respectively, corresponding PE of 54/39/28 times, covered for the first time, giving a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: downstream demand falls short of expectations, industry competition intensifies, raw material prices fluctuate
