前三季度收入保持良好增长。1-3Q24，公司收入5.81 亿元，同比增长26.11%；单三季度，公司收入1.79 亿元，同比增长22.4%。我们预计公司国内阿达木单抗、贝伐珠单抗和托珠单抗均有较好放量。单三季度，公司毛利率77.4%，环比增长12.7 个百分点，我们预计可能为授权费用入账贡献较高毛利润。1-3Q24 performance falls short of our expectations
The company announced 1-3Q24 results: revenue of 0.581 billion yuan, up 26.11% year on year; net profit loss of 0.365 billion yuan, corresponding to earnings per share of -0.88 yuan; net profit loss of 0.404 billion yuan after deducting non-return to mother. The performance was lower than our expectations, mainly due to overseas revenue contributions lower than our expectations.
Development trends
Revenue continued to grow well during the first three quarters. With 1-3Q24, the company's revenue was 0.581 billion yuan, up 26.11% year on year; in the third quarter, the company's revenue was 0.179 billion yuan, up 22.4% year on year. We expect the company to have good doses of adalimumab, bevacizumab, and tocilizumab in China. In the third quarter of a single quarter, the company's gross profit margin was 77.4%, an increase of 12.7 percentage points over the previous quarter. We expect that it may contribute a higher gross profit to the recording of licensing fees.
Sales expenses increased year-on-year, and R&D expenses remained stable year-on-year. 1-3Q24, the company's sales expense ratio was 29.1%, up 3.4 percentage points year on year; management expense ratio was 4.3%, which was basically the same as last year; R&D expenses were 0.599 billion yuan, which was basically the same as last year's 0.61 billion yuan, and the cost rate decreased by 29 percentage points year on year due to increased revenue.
Overseas licenses for biosimilar drugs continue to be implemented, and pipelines have been further enriched. On October 9, 2024, the company announced the licensing of BAT2206 (usinumab)'s exclusive product commercialization rights in several European countries to Gedeon Richter Plc. Biotech will receive a total down payment and milestone payment of up to 0.11 billion US dollars, including a down payment of 8.5 million US dollars, cumulative milestone payments of no more than 0.1015 billion US dollars, and a two-digit percentage of net sales as revenue share. We believe this is another overseas license for the company's major pipeline, which is expected to increase performance. Furthermore, on August 30, the company announced that the dupliumab injection was clinically approved, further enriching the pipeline of biosimilar drugs in the field of autoimmune diseases.
Profit forecasting and valuation
Considering future changes in the overseas biosimilar competition pattern and increased company expenses, we lowered the company's net profit forecast for 2024/2025 to a loss of 0.474 billion yuan/loss of 0.395 billion yuan (previously a loss of 0.272 billion yuan/loss of 0.146 billion yuan). Considering that the company's biosimilar pipeline with international competitiveness continues to be enriched, and licenses are expected to continue to be implemented, we maintain the company's outperforming industry rating. According to the DCF model, the company's target price of 25.0 yuan remains unchanged, with 10.9% upward space compared to the current stock price.
risks
The competitive pattern for biosimilar drugs at home and abroad deteriorated, research and development failed, and the cost investment exceeded expectations.
