“艾奥瓦州的民调正推动人们削减所谓的特朗普交易，”Monex的外汇交易员Helen Given表示。“在实际结果出炉前，我们不会看到更多实质性的走弱”。As traders reduce their bets on Trump trades, the US dollar falls against all major currencies. The dollar continues to fluctuate. The yen and the Swiss franc perform well among G-10 currencies.
Bloomberg's US Dollar Spot Index fell by 0.7% at one point, marking the largest drop since August, before narrowing the decline.
Des Moines Register polls show Kamala Harris leading in Iowa, a state where former President Trump won in the previous two elections. This survey may be an outlier, but it indicates the constantly changing dynamics.
"The Iowa polls are causing people to reduce their exposure to the so-called Trump trades," said Monex forex trader Helen Given. "We won't see more substantial weakness until the actual results are announced."
"As the polls shift in favor of Harris, the US dollar is under pressure," said Barclays forex strategist Skylar Montgomery Koning in New York.
Citi strategist Daniel Tobon mentioned: "The market quickly got into Trump trades in October, but is now closing out some positions."
"The market was more inclined towards these Trump trades before, but is now reducing risk," he said.
"The election has finally arrived, but the outcome seems as uncertain as ever," said Brown Brothers Harriman's global head of market strategy, Win Thin. "Despite the noise, I am still bullish on the US dollar as the US economy continues to perform well."
The dollar/yen fell by 0.6% to 151.14.
If Trump wins, "due to intervention warnings, we expect the upside for the dollar/yen to be limited to 160," said Maximillian Lin, a strategist at the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce.
"During the local Japanese holiday period, the dollar/yen continues to reflect external risks," he said.
The pound/dollar rose by 0.2% to 1.2953; the pound's gains against the US dollar lag behind many other currencies.
The euro/dollar rose by 0.4% to 1.0879
The dollar/Swiss franc fell by 0.7% to 0.8638
Note: Some of the above information comes from knowledgeable traders, but due to lack of public attribution authorization, they prefer not to be named in the forex trading industry.
