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摩根大通:若美国大选导致政治僵局 美股将受到提振

JPMorgan: If the US election leads to a political deadlock, US stocks will be boosted.

Global market report. ·  Nov 5 03:05

JPMorgan strategist Dubravko Lakos-Bujas expects that once the results of the US presidential election are announced, the US stock market will rise in the final stage of 2024, especially in the case of a political deadlock.

"In any deadlock scenario, we believe that as uncertainty fades, volatility decreases, and hedge strategies are unwound, US stock prices will rise. At a time when the economy and corporate earnings remain resilient, investors will once again turn their focus to the Federal Reserve," he wrote in a report to clients on Monday.

Note: Following Marko Kolanovic's departure this summer, Lakos-Bujas took over the management of JPMorgan's market research team.

He added that a scenario where the Republican Party wins big would be most bullish for risk assets by the end of the year.

However, uncertainties surrounding policy implementation may trouble investors in 2025.

Lakos-Bujas believes that a big win for the Democratic Party may not be favorable for the market, adding that the likelihood of this scenario is low.

Despite entering the year-end, the US stock market faces a bullish environment, but a key risk is a significant increase in the far end of the yield curve.

Note: Wilson believes that the "fear of missing out" could drive the S&P 500 index to touch 6100 points by the end of the year.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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