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• jpmorgan warns: if Trump wins on Wednesday, the Fed may pause the easing cycle as early as December.

As the results of the USA presidential election are about to come out, Morgan Stanley analyst David Kelly, in an interview with the financial media Business Insider, stated that if Trump wins the USA presidential election this week, the Federal Reserve may stop its easing cycle as early as December. Kelly believes that Trump's expansionary fiscal policy plan will increase inflation and prevent interest rates from falling: "If Trump wins the election, then he will adopt a more expansionary fiscal policy, which may trigger a trade war, widen the deficit, and raise interest rates."

• Will the US stock market hit a new high after the election? Goldman Sachs: FOMO mentality helps, S&P is expected to reach 6100 points by the end of the year.

In the week before the USA presidential election last week, the three major USA stock indexes collectively fell, but some Wall Street institutions hold an optimistic outlook on a rebound in the USA stocks after the election. For example, Morgan Stanley's Chief USA Stock Strategist Mike Wilson expects the USA large cap to rise by over 6% by the end of this year.

Wilson believes that with the ending of the USA presidential election and concerns about missing out on year-end opportunities, the FOMO mentality may kick in. The S&P 500 index may continue to rise in the final stage of 2024, and it is not impossible for it to rise another 5% on the current basis. However, he also warns that due to the lack of clear catalysts, this enthusiasm for the stock market's rise may fade as 2025 approaches.

• Countdown to the election! The panic index VIX is burning high, with uncertainty troubling the market nerves.

Less than 24 hours before the official voting of the usa general election, the tense election situation has made investors' emotions become nervous. The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) VIX, which measures market volatility, approached the 23 level in intraday trading on Monday, hitting a new high since the unexpected bearish non-farm data in August this year. Investors are weighing the policy proposals of the two major candidates and the possibility of delayed confirmation of the election results. At the same time, the economic and fiscal positions of the next federal government may also impact the future policy path of the Federal Reserve, bringing new uncertainties.

• Polls in the USA: Harris and Trump have similar levels of support in key swing states.

According to a joint survey conducted on November 4th by the Congressional Mountain Report and the American Emerson College, the overall support rates of Vice President Harris, the Democratic presidential candidate, and former President Trump, the Republican presidential candidate, in the key swing states of the USA are generally similar in the US election.

• The renminbi against the usd exchange rate once rose above 7.09, and the renminbi is expected to continue its upward trend in the short term.

On November 4th, the onshore renminbi against the usd spot exchange rate broke through the 7.10 and 7.09 levels in succession during the intraday trading session, reaching a peak of 7.0858; as of the time of writing, it closed at 7.11. While the renminbi exchange rate performed strongly, the usd index weakened significantly on the same day.

• OPEC+ and eight countries continue the voluntary production cut marathon, international oil prices rebounded nearly 3%.

On Sunday (November 3 local time), the OPEC Secretariat announced on its official website that the eight OPEC+ member countries participating in the voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day have decided to extend the expiration date originally scheduled for the end of November to the end of December. As a result of this news, the two major crude oil price benchmarks rose significantly intraday. As of the time of writing, the front-month Brent crude oil futures price increased by nearly 3%; the front-month WTI crude oil futures price rose more than 3%, both reaching the highest level since October 28.

Gamestop's surge has dramatically narrowed, with the trading platform considering unplugging the internet of US retail investors.

• The three major indices collectively closed lower, nvidia's market cap approaching that of apple, and the jinlong index closed higher against the market trend.

As the US presidential election enters the final countdown, the three major indices collectively fell with most investors remaining on the sidelines. By the close of trading on Monday, the S&P 500 index fell by 0.28%; the Nasdaq index fell by 0.33%; the Dow Jones Industrial Index fell by 0.61%.

US tech giants continued to fluctuate. Nvidia rose by 0.48%, Apple dropped by 0.4%, Microsoft fell by 0.47%, Amazon declined by 1.09%, Meta dropped by 1.14%, Google A fell by 1.2%, Tesla decreased by 2.47%, Intel dropped by 2.93%.

Affected by the news of "Nvidia joining the Dow, Intel being ousted" and "Buffett continues to reduce Apple holdings", Nvidia rose by more than 2% at one point during trading hours, while Apple fell by more than 1%. The two companies briefly exchanged the position of "global market cap number one", but by the end of the trading session, Nvidia's sudden drop returned the top spot to Apple.

The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose by 1.1%. JD.com fell by 1.43%, Li Auto dropped by 1.64%, Alibaba rose by 0.84%, PDD Holdings increased by 1.46%, Xpeng rose by 4.77%, Yum China closed up by 7.17% against the backdrop of better-than-expected financial results.

• Will be included in the Dow! Nvidia once rose by over 2%, with its market cap briefly surpassing Apple.

Last Friday's post-market news in the US showed that$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$will replace$Intel (INTC.US)$Joining the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the relevant changes will take effect before the pre-market trading of U.S. stocks this Friday, November 8th. This news helped boost Nvidia's stock price on Monday, rising over 2.6% at one point during trading, closing nearly 0.5% higher, outperforming the overall U.S. stock market.

• Palantir rose nearly 13% after-hours, raising full-year revenue guidance.

$Palantir (PLTR.US)$Rose nearly 13% after-hours. Palantir's adjusted EPS for the third quarter was $0.10, exceeding analyst expectations of $0.09. Third-quarter revenue was $0.7255 billion, surpassing analysts' expectation of $0.7037 billion. Expected full-year revenue of $2.805 billion to $-2.809 billion, up from the company's original forecast of $2.74 billion to $-2.75 billion. Projected full-year adjusted operating profit of $1.05 billion to $-1.06 billion, above analysts' expectation of $0.9705 billion. Anticipated full-year U.S. commercial revenue to be higher than $0.687 billion.

• Yum China's core operating profit in the third quarter grew by 18%, achieving seven consecutive quarters of same-store transaction volume growth.

$Yum China (YUMC.US)$Closing up over 7%, third-quarter total revenue increased by 5% to $3.07 billion, marking the highest quarterly performance in history; net income was $0.297 billion, a 22% year-on-year increase. Within the period, delivery sales grew by 18% year-on-year, same-store transaction volume increased by 1%, achieving growth for the seventh consecutive quarter. The announcement also stated that operating profit for the first 9 months was approximately $1.011 billion, a 1% year-on-year increase. Net income was around $0.796 billion, a 9% year-on-year increase.

• NXP Semiconductors fell more than 5% after hours, with fourth-quarter performance guidance below expectations.

$NXP Semiconductors (NXPI.US)$US stocks fell more than 5% after hours. NXP Semiconductors third-quarter revenue was 3.25 billion US dollars, analyst expected 3.26 billion US dollars. Expected fourth-quarter EPS to be 2.26-2.66 US dollars, analyst expected 3.36 US dollars. Expected adjusted fourth-quarter EPS to be 2.93-3.33 US dollars, analyst expected 5.62 US dollars. Expected fourth-quarter revenue to be 3-3.2 billion US dollars, analyst expected 3.36 billion US dollars.

• The US 'nuclear power + datacenter' speculative logic faces regulatory crackdown.

As of Monday's close, US 'nuclear-powered AI datacenter' concept stocks$Constellation Energy (CEG.US)$fell by 12.46%,$Talen Energy (TLN.US)$The company's stock fell by 2.23%. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) voted 2-1 last Friday to reject Talen Energy's proposal to increase power supply to Amazon's data center through its nuclear power plant. The official reason given was that the proposal did not adequately explain why federal rules should allow such a special contract.

• AstraZeneca and Viking Therapeutics released positive data on oral weight loss drugs at the U.S. Obesity Week conference.

During the U.S. Obesity Week conference,$AstraZeneca (AZN.US)$It was announced on Monday that the daily oral GLP-1 receptor agonist "AZD5004/ECC5004" reduced patients' average weight by 5.8% in four weeks. It is worth mentioning that this drug was actually purchased by AstraZeneca from China.

Also last Sunday,$Viking Therapeutics (VKTX.US)$Positive early-stage experimental data on oral weight loss drug VK2735 was also released. However, after the company's stock initially rose by 8% on Monday, it closed down by 13.36%. The reason behind this may be that analysts pointed out the company would need capital and expertise beyond the two giants if it intends to expand production of this drug.$Eli Lilly and Co (LLY.US)$And.$Novo-Nordisk A/S (NVO.US)$The level.

• Reports indicate that Nvidia is diverting Super Micro Computer orders to other suppliers.

The latest reports indicate that, due to datacenter server manufacturers$Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US)$Facing the 'delisting' storm,$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$The previous orders given to the company are being transferred to other suppliers to control supply chain fluctuations. Gigabyte, ASRock have benefited from the reallocation of orders, and have signed contracts with major customers such as CoreWeave.

After super micro computer quickly recovered from a 7% decline on Monday, it ultimately closed down 0.08%. The company needs to submit its audited annual report by November 20, or else face the risk of delisting again after 2018. The previous auditor, Ernst & Young, has already resigned. The company will release unaudited quarterly reports and hold a financial briefing after Tuesday's market close.

• Apple iOS 18.2 will integrate the 'Upgrade ChatGPT subscription service'.

The iOS 18.2 BETA 2 version released on Tuesday shows,$Apple (AAPL.US)$(Will provide ChatGPT integration to eligible regions and users), and can directly upgrade the ChatGPT subscription service from the setting interface of the Apple system. Although Apple previously stated that integrated services can be used without a ChatGPT account, by binding an account, users can access existing OpenAI data, while paid users can also access more advanced models, voice modes, and more.

• Report: Carrefour is exploring ways to enhance the company valuation, including asset divestment, cooperation and acquisition expansion, as well as operational restructuring.

On Monday, November 4th, Eastern Time, Bloomberg quoted insiders as saying that the French supermarket giant$CARREFOUR S DRC (CRRFY.US)$is exploring various ways to increase its company valuation, with this move coming more than three years after the last attempt to sell itself to industry competitors failed. Insiders say Carrefour is internally discussing various strategies, seeking advice from consultants for reference. The current considerations include asset divestment, expansion through collaboration and acquisitions, or operational restructuring.

BeiShui crazily bought China Mobile for nearly HKD 1.8 billion and sold Tencent for about HKD 200 million. On Monday (June 3rd), Southbound funds net purchased HKD 3.4 billion of Hong Kong stocks.

• Beishui bought Xiaomi for over 0.4 billion Hong Kong dollars, sold off Tracker Fund of Hong Kong for nearly 1.2 billion Hong Kong dollars, and sold CNOOC for over 0.4 billion Hong Kong dollars

On Monday, November 4th, Northbound funds net bought 3.279 billion Hong Kong dollars in Hong Kong stocks.

$XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$,$INNOVENT BIO (01801.HK)$,$GEELY AUTO (00175.HK)$Net purchases of 0.453 billion Hong Kong dollars, 0.368 billion Hong Kong dollars, and 0.351 billion Hong Kong dollars respectively;

$TRACKER FUND OF HONG KONG (02800.HK)$,$CNOOC (00883.HK)$,$SMIC (00981.HK)$Experience net sales of 1.191 billion Hong Kong dollars, 0.47 billion Hong Kong dollars, and 0.306 billion Hong Kong dollars respectively.

The company's overall sales volume in 2023 was 18,000 kiloliters, with a year-on-year increase of 28.10%, indicating significant growth. In terms of product structure, the operating income of products worth 10-30 billion yuan were 401/1288/60 million yuan respectively.

Keywords: Super Micro Computer Financial Report, China Caixin Services PMI, USA Presidential Election Voting Day

On Tuesday, economic data including China Caixin Services PMI, US September Trade Balance, US October ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and other data will be released.

In terms of performance, in the Japanese stock market $Nintendo (7974.JP)$ the latest performance will be released, and in the US stock market $Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US)$and$Microchip Technology (MCHP.US)$The financial report will be announced after the market closes.

In terms of financial events, the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce the interest rate decision and monetary policy statement; the United States will have the presidential election voting day.

Futubull Morning News:

One must understand the interaction between reason and emotion when they alternately influence the market.
- Bernard Baruch

Editor/ping