境内高基数下RevPAR 同比降低。24 年三季度，公司境内全服务酒店业务/境内有限服务酒店/境外有限服务酒店合并营业收入分别同比+42.85%/-11.63%/+2.30%。经营数据上，24Q3 公司境内有限服务型酒店RevPAR 为174.41 元/间，同比减少8.38%；ADR/OCC 分别为237.74 元/73.36%，同比分别-10.49%/+1.69pct；中端酒店RevPAR 同比减少10.78%；经济型酒店RevPAR 同比减少4.67%。境外有限服务型酒店RevPAR 为43.36 欧元/间，同比减少6.05%；ADR/OCC 分别为67.81 欧元/63.94%，分别同比-1.31%/-3.22pct。The company released its report for the third quarter of 2024. In 2024Q3, the company achieved operating income of 3.898 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.10%; net profit to mother was 0.258 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 43.08%. Q3 The company's revenue in mainland China fell 10.88% year on year, and revenue outside mainland China increased 1.93% year on year. Under the influence of high base factors, the company's business situation in the third quarter was under pressure from a year-on-year perspective. The impact of subsequent organizational personnel adjustments and store quality improvements is still worth looking forward to. We maintain our holdings increase rating.
Key points to support ratings
Revenue and profit for the third quarter all declined year over year. 24Q3 achieved operating income of 3.898 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.10%; realized net profit of 0.258 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 43.08%; and realized net profit deducted from non-mother of 0.25 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 41.65%. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 10.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.55%, and achieved net profit of 1.106 billion yuan (including the disposal of 100% of Fashion Tour's shares to obtain investment income of about 0.42 billion yuan), an increase of 12.13% over the previous year, and realized net profit without deduction of 0.639 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.39%.
RevPAR declined year-on-year under a high domestic base. In the third quarter of '24, the consolidated revenue of the company's domestic full-service hotel business/domestic limited-service hotels/overseas limited-service hotels was +42.85%/-11.63%/+2.30%, respectively. According to operating data, 24Q3's domestic limited service hotel RevPar was 174.41 yuan/room, down 8.38% year on year; ADR/OCC was 237.74 yuan/73.36%, respectively, -10.49% /+1.69pct year on year; mid-range hotel RevPar decreased 10.78% year on year; and budget hotel RevPar decreased 4.67% year on year. Overseas limited-service hotel RevPar was 43.36 Euros/room, a year-on-year decrease of 6.05%; ADR/OCC was 67.81 Euro/ 63.94%, respectively, -1.31%/-3.22pct.
The plan to open a store continues to advance. The company opened 469 new hotels in the third quarter of '24 (net increase of 248), and opened a total of 1,149 in the first three quarters. In terms of quantity, the annual target of 1,200 businesses mentioned in the '23 annual report has basically been achieved.
valuations
The company's Q3 operating data is under year-on-year pressure. Q4 is a low season for business travel, and growth expectations for the whole year have declined. In the long run, the role of personnel organization reform and continuous improvement in store quality in boosting subsequent business performance still requires attention. Based on actual operating data, we adjusted the company's 24-26 EPS forecast to 1.15/1.19/1.43 yuan, and the corresponding price-earnings ratio was 23.6/22.7/18.9 times, maintaining an increase in holdings rating.
The main risks faced by ratings
Industry competition increases the risk, the risk of expansion being blocked, and the risk of exchange rate fluctuations.
