公司稳步扩产持续降本增效，未来盈利能力有望恢复。截止2024 年6 月30 日，公司的总产能为 23,000 吨/天，其中 2,600 吨/天已经冷修。公司现有产线中，千吨级及以上的大型窑炉占比超 90%，与小窑炉相比，大窑炉内部的燃烧和温度更加稳定，单耗更低，且成品率会进一步提升。因此，在现有窑炉规模的基础上，公司将自主研发大型窑炉，大窑炉技术瓶颈的突破将进一步降低成本，巩固在光伏玻璃行业的竞争未来，未来公司凭借客户基础，规模优势，资源优势以及技术优势，将继续稳健经营，努力保持行业领先地位。面临当下种种挑战，新增供给逐步走向理性，落后产能逐步淘汰出清，光伏行业在短期波动和阵痛之后，光伏有望再次焕发新的活力。Incident: The company released its 2024 three-quarter report. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 14.604 billion yuan, -8.06%; realized net profit to mother of 1.295 billion yuan, or -34.18% year-on-year; realized deducted non-net profit of 1.245 billion yuan, or -36.02% year-on-year. Among them, 24Q3 achieved operating income of 3.908 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 37.03%, realized net profit to mother of -0.203 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 122.97%, and realized net profit deducted from non-mother of -0.235 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 126.87%.
Affected by the drop in the price of photovoltaic glass, the company's 24Q3 profit was under pressure. According to Infolink Consulting data, the average price of 3.2mm/2.0mm coatings for photovoltaic glass was 26.50/17.5 yuan/square meter on January 3, 2024, and the average price of 3.2mm/2.0mm coatings for photovoltaic glass was 21.25/12.5 yuan/square meter respectively on October 30, 2024. The price of photovoltaic glass has dropped significantly since the beginning of the year, which has had an impact on the company's 24Q3 profit.
Cold repair is accelerating due to the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry, and future industry production capacity is expected to be optimized. As competition on the PV supply side intensified, production capacity grew larger than demand, triggering an irrational drop in prices in the industrial chain. Along with the narrowing of profits, and even at a time when some companies are losing money, the production capacity of photovoltaic glass, especially small-scale production capacity that has been in use for a long time, is being reduced at an accelerated pace. By the first half of '24, the industry had a cold repair capacity of over 0.01 million tons. At the same time, due to profit conditions, approval policies, and financing costs, many new investment projects were announced to be terminated or postponed.
The company's steady expansion of production continues to reduce costs and increase efficiency, and profitability is expected to recover in the future. As of June 30, 2024, the company's total production capacity was 23,000 tons/day, of which 2,600 tons/day has been refrigerated. In the company's current production line, large kilns of kilotons and above account for more than 90%. Compared with small kilns, the combustion and temperature inside large kilns are more stable, unit consumption is lower, and the yield will be further improved. Therefore, on the basis of the existing scale of kilns, the company will independently develop large-scale kilns. Breaking through the technical bottleneck of large kilns will further reduce costs and consolidate the competitive future in the photovoltaic glass industry. In the future, the company will continue to operate steadily and strive to maintain its leading position in the industry with its customer base, scale advantages, resource advantages and technical advantages. Faced with current challenges, new supply is gradually becoming rational, and backward production capacity is gradually being eliminated. After short-term fluctuations and pain, the photovoltaic industry is expected to once again gain new vitality.
Investment advice: As a leading photovoltaic glass enterprise, the company has leading technical advantages and scale advantages. The company's net profit for 2024-2026 is expected to be 1.11/2.027/3.098 billion yuan, and the corresponding PE price on November 1 is 55.90/30.61/20.03 X, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the risk of price fluctuations in the industrial chain, the risk of insufficient terminal demand, and the risk of increased market competition.
