Low-concentration atropine continues to be released, and the company's ophthalmic products continue to iterate, maintaining the “buy” rating of 2024Q1-3, the company's revenue of 1.439 billion yuan (+30.27% year over year, all the following are year-on-year caliber), mainly the amount of 0.01% atropine sulfate eye drops released after approval for marketing; net profit of 0.291 billion yuan (+59.47%); net profit of 0.29 billion yuan (+63.31%) without return to mother. The company's 2024Q1-3 gross profit margin was 78.38% (+0.80pct); net profit margin 20.20% (+3.70pct). The company 2024Q1-3 sales expense ratio is 35.91% (-1.25pct); management expense ratio is 8.35% (-1.83pct); R&D expense ratio is 9.69% (-1.31pct). In a single quarter, 2024Q3's revenue was 0.547 billion yuan (+30.54%, +1.03% month-on-month); net profit to mother was 0.121 billion yuan (+28.41%, -9.76% month-on-month). Based on the release rate of the company's core product, low-concentration atropine 2024Q3, which is lower than expected, we lowered net profit to mother for 2024-2026 to 0.44, 0.807, and 1.324 billion yuan (the original forecast was 0.503/0.824/1.43 billion yuan), EPS was 2.52/4.63/7.59 yuan, and the current stock price corresponding PE is 33.1/18.1/11.0 times. Given the company's leading position in the field of myopia prevention and control medication, we maintain The company's “buy” rating.
The company has established an advantageous product line portfolio, and the release of low concentrations of atropine can be expected (1) The company has established a “complete series and many varieties” ophthalmic drug product system. The company's products include drugs to slow the progression of myopia in children, dry eye products, ophthalmic anti-infective drugs, ophthalmic antiinflammatory/anti-infective combination drugs, pupil dilation drugs and ciliary muscle palsy drugs, ocular non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, pupil reduction drugs, and anti-glaucoma drugs, etc., covering ten ophthalmic drug segments. (2) The company's product, ciclosporin eye drops (II), is the first cyclosporine ophthalmic preparation approved for dry eye syndrome in China; in March 2024, the company obtained the “Drug Registration Certificate” for atropine sulfate eye drops. Currently, there are no similar products with myopia-related indications on the market in China. The product is valid until March 4, 2029. This variety is the first to be approved for marketing in China, and has a strong first-mover advantage. Currently, it is in the rapid deployment stage. As the number of new myopia patients continues to increase and the company's promotion efforts continue to increase, we expect product sales to increase rapidly. In October 2024, atropine sulfate eye drops (0.02%/0.04%) obtained the Phase III clinical trial summary report, and the company's ophthalmic products continued to be iterated.
Risk warning: the risk of changes in industry policies, product sales falling short of expectations, and changes in the competitive landscape.
