2024Q1-Q3 公司营收同比增速较2024H1 +0.27pct，主要系公司其他非息收入表现边际改善。2024Q1-Q3 公司实现其他非息收入430.61 亿元，同比+71.50%，增速较2024H1+15.74pct，其他非息收入增速明显提升主要系去年同期公允价值变动损益基数较低。2024Q1-Q3 公司归母净利润增速较2024H1 +1.93pct，主要系生息资产规模扩张及拨备反哺贡献度边际有所提升。从业绩归因来看，2024Q1-Q3 生息资产规模、净息差、其他非息收入、拨备计提对净利润的贡献度分别为+9.71%、-15.61%、+3.33%、+3.20%，较2024H1 分别+1.61pct、-2.34pct、+0.63pct、+1.26pct。Key points of investment
China Construction Bank released its 2024 three-quarter report. In the first three quarters, the company achieved operating income of 569.022 billion yuan, -3.30% over the same period last year. Net profit to mother was 255.776 billion yuan, +0.13% year over year.
The net profit growth rate was corrected, and the contribution to scale expansion increased
The year-on-year revenue growth rate of 2024Q1-Q3 company was +0.27pct compared to 2024H1, mainly due to a marginal improvement in the company's other non-interest revenue performance. 2024Q1-Q3 achieved other non-interest revenue of 43.061 billion yuan, +71.50% year-on-year, with a growth rate of 2024H1+15.74pct. The significant increase in the growth rate of other non-interest income was mainly due to the lower profit and loss base of fair value changes in the same period last year. 2024Q1-Q3's net profit growth rate compared to 2024H1 was +1.93pct, mainly due to the expansion of the size of interest-bearing assets and an increase in the marginal contribution of provision for backfeed. In terms of performance attributions, 2024Q1-Q3 contributed +9.71%, -15.61%, +3.33%, and +3.20% to net profit, respectively, compared to 2024H1, +1.61pct, -2.34pct, +0.63pct, and +1.26pct, respectively.
The decline in interest spreads has narrowed, and the bill impulse is more obvious
As of the end of 2024Q3, the company's loan balance was 25.7 trillion yuan, +8.87% year-on-year, and the growth rate was -1.15pct compared to 2024H1. Looking at new domestic loans, the company's domestic loans increased net by 303.449 billion yuan in a single quarter in 2024Q3, including a net increase of 359.059 billion yuan in bill discounts, which is quite significant. In terms of net interest spreads, 2024Q1-Q3's cumulative net interest spread was 1.52%, which is narrower than 2024H1 -2bp. According to our estimates, the average return on interest-bearing assets of the 2024Q1-Q3 company is 3.23%, compared to 2024H1 -4 bps. The level of return on the asset side continues to decline, and the narrowing of interest spreads is mainly due to the continuous improvement in the company's debt costs in the context of lower interest rates on deposit listings.
The non-performing rate is stable, and capital strength is expected to improve further
As of the end of 2024Q3, the company's defect rate was 1.35%, the same as at the end of 2024H1. The balance of non-performing loans was $346.906 billion, +5.13% year over year. The growth rate of non-performing loans was slower than the overall credit growth rate. In terms of provision, the company's provision coverage rate at the end of 2024Q3 was 237.03%. Compared with -1.72pct at the end of 2024H1, the risk compensation capacity is sufficient. In terms of capital, the company's core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio at the end of 2024Q3 was 14.10%, +9bps compared to the end of 2024H1. Subsequent national plans to increase core Tier 1 capital for six large commercial banks, and the company's capital strength is expected to be further enhanced.
Investment advice: maintaining CCB's “buy” rating
We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 756.6/775.6/805.3 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -1.71%/+2.51%/+3.83%, and 3-year CAGR of 1.52%; net profit to mother of 333/338.9/351.6 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of +0.10%/+1.79%/+3.75%, and 3-year CAGR of 1.87%. Considering the company's steady operation and high dividend rate, we maintain an “Overweight” rating.
Risk warning: Steady growth falls short of expectations, deteriorating asset quality, and regulatory policy shifts.
