手机品牌发布新机型带动柔性OLED 面板需求回升。据CINNO Research，随着苹果IPhone 16 系列等高端旗舰机型的发布，3Q24 全球OLED 面板需求持续回升，3Q24 全球AMOLED 智能手机面板出货量约2.2 亿片，同比增长25.3%，环比增长0.9%。其中京东方柔性AMOLED 智能手机面板出货量同比增长2.0%，市场份额17.6%，公司持续增加LTPO、折叠等高端产品出货，布局8.6 代高世代OLED 产线，有望充分有益于OLED 面板在手机以及中尺寸显示的渗透率提升。In 3Q24, the company's revenue increased 8.6% year over year, and gross margin remained basically the same month over month. The company released the 2024 three-quarter report. 1-3Q24 revenue was 143.732 billion yuan (YoY +13.6%), and net profit to mother was 3.31 billion yuan (YoY +223.8%). 3Q24's revenue was $50.345 billion (YoY +8.6%, QoQ +6.0%), and net profit to mother was 1.026 billion yuan (YoY +258.2%, QoQ -21.1%). 3Q24 company gross profit margin 17.4% (YoY +2.6pct, QoQ +0.0pct). Against the backdrop of LCD TV panel prices falling month by month in July-September, the company achieved year-on-month revenue growth, and gross margin remained basically flat month-on-month.
The 3Q24 trade-in policy increased demand for TV panels, and the company's TV panel shipments increased 9% year over year.
According to DiXian Consulting, driven by the trade-in policy, the domestic TV market gradually recovered, driving the resumption of panel shipments in August/September. 1-3Q24 global LCD TV panel shipments were 0.178 billion pieces, down 2% year on year, and the shipping area was 0.129 billion square meters, up 2% year on year. Among them, 3Q24 global LCD TV panel shipments were 59.5 million, the same as the previous year. 3Q24's LCD TV panel shipments were 15.3 million, up 9% year on year. Shipment volume of 43.7 million films in the first three quarters was flat year on year, with a market share of 24% ranking first in the market. The increase in the company's shipments in the third quarter was mainly due to increased demand brought about by the trade-in policy.
The release of new models by mobile phone brands has led to a recovery in demand for flexible OLED panels. According to CINNO Research, with the release of high-end flagship models such as the Apple iPhone 16 series, global demand for OLED panels continued to pick up in 3Q24. 3Q24 global AMOLED smartphone panel shipments were about 0.22 billion pieces, up 25.3% year on year and 0.9% month on month. Among them, BOE's flexible AMOLED smartphone panel shipments increased 2.0% year-on-year, with a market share of 17.6%. The company continued to increase shipments of high-end products such as LTPO and folding, and laid out 8.6-generation high-generation OLED production lines, which is expected to fully benefit the increase in the penetration rate of OLED panels in mobile phones and medium-sized displays.
Investment advice: We maintain the company's profit forecast. The company's revenue for 2024-2026 is expected to increase 18.8%/8.9%/8.3% year on year to 207.4/225.9/244.6 billion yuan, and net profit to mother will increase 85.7%/91.9%/36.7% year on year to 4.73/9.076/12.403 billion yuan, corresponding to the 2024-2026 PB of 1.27/1.22/1.16 times, respectively, maintaining the “superior to the market” rating.
Risk warning: Panel prices fluctuate, demand falls short of expectations, and the OLED business falls short of expectations.
