Incident: The company released its three-quarter report for 2024, and achieved operating income of 28.821 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, +1.44% year-on-year; net profit to mother was 0.944 billion yuan, +17.43% compared with last year.
Key points of investment
The core business is growing steadily, and technological innovation is driving up profits: with the recovery of the domestic aviation market, demand for new models continues to rise. As an important domestic aircraft manufacturer, the company achieved operating income of 28.821 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, +1.44% year over year; net profit to mother was 0.944 billion yuan, +17.43% compared to last year. Among them, the results for the third quarter of 2024 were also outstanding, achieving total operating income of 0.892 billion yuan, -4.13% year over year, and net profit to mother of 0.287 billion yuan, +20.21% year over year. In terms of profitability, on the one hand, the company's asset restructuring reduced intermediate links, especially reducing related transactions, thereby reducing costs and increasing gross profit margin. On the other hand, the company made structural adjustments in management, especially in optimizing supply chain management and production processes, reducing unnecessary expenses. The company's gross sales margin reached 7.36% in the first three quarters of 2024, +3.01 pct year on year, and remained at a high level.
Measures in cost control, cost management, tax incentives, and operational efficiency improvement were positive, and the cost control performance was good: as of the third quarter of 2024, the company's R&D expenses reached 0.073 billion yuan, or -34.39% year over year, mainly due to a decrease in R&D expenses for self-funded projects in the current period; financial expenses reached -0.092 billion yuan, +62.29% year over year, mainly due to a year-on-year decrease in interest income for the current period; sales expenses reached 0.272 billion yuan, -20.18% year on year; management expenses were slightly lower year on year It rose 32.42% to 0.871 billion yuan, and overall cost control was positive. Furthermore, as of the third quarter of 2024, the company's asset impairment losses were -0.009 billion yuan, a sharp year-on-year decrease of 203.68%, mainly due to the increase in impairment of contract assets accrued in the current period.
Strategies in fund management, project investment, and debt restructuring have changed: as of the third quarter of 2024, the company's monetary capital decreased by 67.69% year on year to 0.624 billion yuan, mainly due to increased purchase payments to suppliers; notes receivable decreased by 45.47% year over year to 0.11 billion yuan due to maturing payment of notes receivable; accounts receivable increased 30.22% year over year to 2.314 billion yuan; contract assets increased 94.77% year over year 0.372 billion yuan, some sales products did not reach the payment point; projects under construction increased 69.26% year over year to 0.137 billion yuan due to increased investment in project projects; contract liabilities decreased by 51.19% year on year to 0.918 billion yuan, and some advance payment carry-over revenue.
Profit forecast and investment rating: The company's performance is in line with expectations. Considering the company's leading position in the aircraft industry, we maintain our previous forecast. The company's net profit for 2024-2026 is 1.1/1.446/1.757 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to PE 73/55/45 times, respectively, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: 1) the risk of macroeconomic development; 2) the risk of production and operation; 3) the risk of military business fluctuations; 4) the risk that the development of new models of equipment does not meet expectations.