不过，他们也提醒道，Wall Street strategists generally believe that the yield of U.S. Treasury bonds will determine the trend of the U.S. stock market after the U.S. election. If Trump wins and the Republicans sweep Congress, it is expected that the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield will experience limited fluctuations, which is bullish for the stock market; if Harris wins and Congress is divided, consumer stocks affected by tariffs and wind power stocks may benefit in the short term.
Currently, strategists at jpmorgan and morgan stanley unanimously believe that the U.S. treasury yield will determine the movement of U.S. stocks after the U.S. election.
Today, the team led by Michael Wilson at morgan stanley stated that if Trump wins the election and the Republicans sweep Congress, it is expected that the U.S. 10-year treasury notes yield will show limited volatility due to improved economic growth expectations, which will be a positive signal for the stock market. Analysis suggests that in such a scenario, cyclical stocks like financial and industrial stocks will perform well.
However, they also caution that if the U.S. bond yields rise significantly due to market concerns about fiscal prospects, causing a risk-averse sentiment in the stock market, consumer stocks sensitive to tariffs may be impacted.
On Monday and Tuesday, polling data ahead of the U.S. election caused some investors to reduce their so-called 'Trump trades.' Polls indicate that Democratic candidate Harris and Trump are neck and neck, with Harris slightly ahead nationwide and in some swing states. The U.S. 10-year treasury notes yield has dropped slightly as a result, currently standing at 4.294%.
JPMorgan stated that if Harris takes over the White House and Congress is divided, consumer stocks affected by tariffs and renewable energy stocks may outperform the large cap in the short term. Meanwhile, in this scenario, the decrease in interest rates may benefit housing-sensitive consumer stocks, while financial, industrial, and industries sensitive to the csi commodity equity index may underperform.
Mislav Matejka's team at jpmorgan also advised stock investors in their report to closely monitor the bond market. They mentioned that compared to 2016, investors currently have higher overall hold positions in the U.S. stock market, with general expectations of a Trump victory leading to a positive market reaction.
They also pointed out:
"While the stock market may experience a similar rebound to 2016 after Trump's victory, the sustainability of the upward trend may depend on the reaction of bond yields."
Analysts believe that if Harris wins, the uncertainty of the corporate tax path in the short term will increase, but from a medium-term perspective, the reduction in tariff risks may provide support for the stock market.
