Source: Jin10 Data

As the voters choose the next president of the USA, the market's reaction to the outcome has raised questions. Analysts are assessing this.

In a report released by jpmorgan wealth management on November 1st, it was pointed out that after the election, market volatility may increase. However, since 1984, there has only been one year following an election where the market declined over the following 12 months, in 2000, when the market was affected by the bursting of the technology bubble.

Global investment strategist Alan Wynne wrote: "The drop in the nasdaq 100 index and s&p 500 technology sector exceeded double digits, while the decline in other sectors was more moderate, and some sectors even saw an increase."

Wynne stated that in order to have a significant impact on the capital markets, we may need a decisive result, "this means that both the presidency and both houses of Congress are controlled by the same party."

Rob Haworth, Senior Investment Strategist at Bank of America Asset Management, pointed out in a report dated October 29th. If there isn't a single-party sweep, it is difficult to get the "most significant policy proposals approved," he explained, "and this is precisely when the market might become more sensitive."

However, the broad policy direction of the election winner may have some impact on the capital markets at the industry level. For example, Haworth said, "If the Republican Party wins, it may drive more development of fossil fuels, while if the Democratic Party wins, it may further promote wind power development."

Goldman Sachs's report stated: "There remains high uncertainty surrounding the USA election, and we continue to believe that the outcome could have significant implications, especially in trade, immigration, and fiscal policy."

This in-depth analysis report compares Harris and Trump's positions on federal corporate tax rates and tariffs. The report also specifically discusses the potential impact of potential policy changes on relevant industries.

As a barometer of the economic situation, the banking sector will be an object worthy of attention. Richard Ramsden from the Goldman Sachs stock research department wrote: "The vast majority of bank revenues come from domestic sources, and banks have fewer deduction items than other industries, making bank revenues more sensitive to changes in corporate tax rates than the average level of the S&P 500 index."

Some experts believe that no matter who is elected president, the market will win. A survey conducted by Bloomberg found that about half of investors believe that under President Harris's term, the stock market will either maintain or accelerate its rise, while 59% of investors believe that under President Trump's term, the stock market will also experience a similar situation.

The survey involved a total of 350 respondents, including economists, portfolio managers, and investors. They believe that regardless of which candidate takes office, certain asset classes will prosper.

Editor / jayden