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新兴市场资产上涨 交易员削减对特朗普胜选的押注

Emerging markets assets rise as traders reduce bets on Trump's re-election.

Global market report. ·  Nov 4 21:00

Emerging market assets rise, investors limit bets on Donald Trump winning the US presidential election, despite his momentum being neck and neck with another candidate.

Mexican, South African, and Eastern European currencies against the US dollar rose the day before the US election, which could reshape global trade and investment flows in the coming years. As of 10 a.m. London time, the MSCI Emerging Markets Forex Index rose by 0.2%, heading towards the largest increase in two weeks.

A weekend poll showed Kamala Harris leading in Iowa, a state that Donald Trump had won in previous elections. Bets on Trump's victory have supported the US dollar, as the market expects tariffs and inflation policies to potentially compel the Fed to maintain a relatively tight monetary stance.

"The poll results dealt a blow to Trump's trading," said Elias Haddad, a strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman, "Nevertheless, the presidential election will certainly be very intense, and it may take a few days to know who will emerge victorious."

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Economies most sensitive to new export barriers and a strengthening US dollar saw the largest gains on Monday, with the Polish zloty and Mexican peso both rising by 0.9%.

Fredrik Repton, Senior Portfolio Manager for Global Fixed Income and Currency at Neuberger Berman, believes that Harris's potential victory could lead to lower volatility and reduced risk premiums.

MSCI Emerging Markets stocks rose driven by a rebound in the technology sector. Chip manufacturer Taiwan Semiconductor ended a four-day decline, recording the largest increase in two weeks.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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