As of the time of publication, the three major US stock indexes collectively declined, with the Dow Jones falling by 0.34%, the Nasdaq falling by 0.2%, and the S&P 500 Index falling by 0.05%.

Nvidia's stock price is rising. After the US stock market closed last Friday (November 1), S&P Dow Jones Indices suddenly announced that it would adjust the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index, with Nvidia replacing its competitor Intel as one of its 30 components. This adjustment officially took effect after the US stock market closed this Friday (November 8).

S&P Dow Jones Indices stated that the adjustment of components was to ensure that the index has a more representative exposure to the chip industry. This change in status comes as Nvidia continues to rise, while Intel struggles in the artificial intelligence (AI) competition.

Nvidia has risen by 173% year to date, while during this period, Intel's market cap has shrunk by more than half.

The market is also watching this Tuesday's US presidential election.

The outcome of this election may play a key role in the performance of the US stock market for the remainder of this year. The latest polls show a deadlock in the competition between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.

Samy Chaar, Chief Economist at Lombard Odier, stated: "In the past few weeks, the 'Trump trade' has seen some reversals. Today's election situation looks different from last Friday, it hasn't reached the point of Harris leading, but Trump no longer has strong momentum."

But market reaction may depend more on which party controls Congress. If the control of the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate is divided between the two parties, this may mean maintaining the status quo. However, if the Republicans or Democrats control both chambers, it may be accompanied by a victory by the same party in the presidential election, which would mean new spending plans or tax reform.

Some Wall Street insiders believe that the U.S. presidential election is a significant obstacle that the market needs to overcome in order to sustain growth by the end of the year.

Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson and his team stated that if Trump wins and the Republicans secure control of Congress, the trend of the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield will set the tone for the market after the U.S. election.

In a report, Michael Wilson's team wrote that if the yield remains relatively stable or rises by less than 20 basis points in the case of improving economic growth expectations, cyclical stocks such as financials and industrials may outperform the S&P 500. Conversely, if the yield rises more significantly, and the term premium driven up by concerns about fiscal sustainability, the market risk aversion will be stronger, and consumer stocks sensitive to trade policies will underperform.

Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Zezas stated in a report to clients: "The U.S. election is very important, but the process may be very tumultuous. Having some patience and a plan will lead to a huge difference between passing through calmly or getting lost in it."

Deborah Cunningham of Federated Hermes in a report said that whoever wins the U.S. presidential election may adopt inflationary policies. She said: "When basic economic principles are still in effect, tax cuts—especially on personal incomes—often lead to increased capital expenditures and demand."

She said that the fiscal policies of Harris and Trump may have a long-term impact on expanding national debt, albeit to varying degrees.

Aon Investments stated that if Trump is elected, the combination of fiscal and trade policies is expected to drive inflation and interest rates higher. The Trump administration may take protectionist measures, including raising import tariffs on U.S. goods, and focus on "deregulation." He may also seek to extend tax cut deadlines, and both of these supply shock measures are likely to restrict the Federal Reserve's ability to implement interest rate normalization, potentially falling short of market expectations.

AnSheng Investments expects the neutral interest rate of the Fed to be 3% to 3.5%, and estimates the US inflation for the next two years to be 2.9% and 2.6%.

Following the US presidential election, Wall Street will be preparing for the latest interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve on Thursday. According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders expect a 96% chance of a rate cut by the Fed at the end of this week's monetary policy meeting.

Before this, the Federal Reserve decided to cut rates significantly by 50 basis points at the September meeting. Currently, the market expects the Fed to cut rates again by 25 basis points this week. Previously, the money markets anticipated a high risk of another 50 basis points rate cut in November or December, but given the recent solid US economic data, the market has greatly reduced rate cut expectations. Investors will look for clues in the Fed's forecasts and comments to determine whether there will be another rate cut in December.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's post-meeting comments will receive significant attention, as Wall Street hopes to gain more insight into the central bank's interest rate trends.

The US stock earnings season continues to progress. Companies such as Super Micro Computer, Moderna, CVS Health, Qualcomm, and Wynn Resorts will report earnings in the coming days.

In the S&P 500 index, around one-fifth of the constituent stocks are planning to report earnings this week. According to FactSet data, 70% of the reported earnings by S&P 500 companies have exceeded expectations.

Focus stocks

Growth tech stocks have generally declined, with Tesla dropping nearly 3%, Apple and Google falling by about 1%, while Nvidia bucked the trend and rose by close to 2%.

热门中概股集体走高，百胜中国绩后涨近10%，阿里、拼多多涨近2%。

$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ 涨近2%，总市值达3.38 trillion美元，超越苹果公司，重新成为全球市值最高的公司。

$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ 跌近3%，10月中国产电动车交付量同比降5.3%，环比大降23%。

爱荷华州或“翻蓝”， $Trump Media & Technology (DJT.US)$ 股价走低跌超1%。

$Constellation Energy (CEG.US)$ Falling more than 10%, US regulatory agencies refuse to sign a nuclear power agreement with Amazon, causing a 'bloodbath' in multiple nuclear power stocks.

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