The latest poll shows Harris and Trump neck and neck!

Recently, global investors have been waiting for the results of the US elections. A series of polls released last Sunday showed that Harris and Trump are still neck and neck, with minimal support differences in both the United States nationally and in key swing states that could determine the outcome.

In the final pre-election poll conducted by the National Broadcasting Company (NBC) in the US, the support rates for Harris and Trump are currently tied at 49%. In a survey by the consulting firm Morning Consult, Harris leads by 49% to 47%, ahead by 2 percentage points with a margin of error of 1 percentage point.

Earlier, Reuters reported that Democrats in the US speculated that Trump might announce victory in this year's election ahead of time. Harris's campaign team stated that they are preparing strategies to quickly respond to public opinion and urged the public to remain calm and patient during the vote counting period.

It is worth noting that David Kelly, the global chief strategist of JPMorgan asset management, issued a warning that if Trump wins the US election this week, the Federal Reserve may pause rate cuts from December onwards.

Harris and Trump are neck and neck.

Just this past Sunday, in the final pre-election poll conducted by the National Broadcasting Company (NBC) in the US, Harris and Trump's support rates are currently tied at 49%. 2% of voters say they are still undecided. In addition, two-thirds of voters believe that the US is heading in the wrong direction. Also, in a survey by Yahoo News/YouGov, the support rates for both sides are also neck and neck, with results at 47%-47%.

In a Sunday survey of potential voters by the consulting firm Morning Consult, Harris leads by two percentage points, 49%-47%, with a one percentage point margin of error. Since Harris's lead of three percentage points last week and previous four-percentage-point leads in two Morning Consult polls, Harris's lead has slightly narrowed.

However, the final poll results from ABC News and Ipsos show Harris leading nationally with 49% to 46%, and data released by the New York Times/Siena survey on Sunday shows Harris leading in five of the seven swing states. A poll from the Des Moines Register shows Harris leading in Iowa (a state Trump previously won in every election) with 47% to 44%, which could be an outlier but suggests that Harris' efforts to win over white voters in the Midwest may be successful.

According to Agence France-Presse, on November 3rd, US presidential candidates Harris and Trump faced off in swing states, marking the most intense final weekend of a modern US presidential campaign. A series of rallies in swing states will test their endurance and ability to persuade the remaining undecided voters in the country.

Reports indicate that both candidates held rallies in North Carolina on the 2nd. Harris will also hold rallies in Georgia and Michigan, further conveying the message that Trump poses a threat to American democracy. Trump will also travel to Virginia, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. He has pledged to thoroughly reshape the government to the right and launch an aggressive trade war to enforce his "America First" policy.

On November 2nd, Trump criticized the economic situation under the Biden-Harris administration during an interview with Fox News, calling the disappointing job data released on the 1st a "gift" to him.

The two candidates' hectic schedules will continue until Monday, culminating in late-night rallies – Trump in Grand Rapids, Michigan, and Harris in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

Data from the University of Florida Election Laboratory shows that as of the afternoon of November 3rd local time, over 76.46 million voters nationwide have cast early votes for the 2024 presidential election, with North Carolina seeing a historic high voter turnout, with over 4.2 million ballots cast at polling stations.

Recently, Reuters reported that the voting day for the 2024 US election is approaching. Democrats speculate that Trump may prematurely announce victory in this year's election. Harris' campaign team stated that they are preparing response strategies to quickly react to public opinion and are urging the public to remain calm and patient during the vote counting. While Harris did not disclose specific preparations, six Democratic officials and Harris' campaign team members told the media on November 1st that the initial Democratic response strategy will focus on the public arena, planning to respond promptly, heavily promote on social media and television, and call on the public to remain calm and patient during the vote counting.

A senior official from the Democratic National Committee stated: "Once Trump falsely declares victory, we are prepared to announce the truth on television and counteract using the influence of the public."

A senior official from the Harris team also said during a conference call with reporters that they "fully anticipated" that Trump would falsely claim victory before all the votes are counted. The official said: "He has done this before. If he does it again, he will face defeat."

JPMorgan issued a "warning".

Recently, David Kelly, Global Chief Strategist of JPMorgan Asset Management, warned that if Trump wins the US presidential election this week, the Fed may pause its loose monetary policy as early as December.

David Kelly pointed out that Trump's expansionary fiscal policy plans could raise inflation and prevent interest rate cuts. David Kelly said: "If the Republicans achieve a significant victory in Trump's win, you will get more expansionary fiscal policies, potential trade wars, bigger deficits, leading to higher interest rates." The impact of these policies will prompt the Fed to pause rate cuts.

David Kelly also stated that if Harris wins, the US economy may continue on the path of a soft landing. "With a divided government, like in Harris' win scenario, I think you will continue to have this slow, long soft-landing economy, but a bit subdued." He said in this case, the Fed may stick to its expected loose policy path.

While the Fed operates independently, David Kelly pointed out that the Fed will still react to politics because developments could signal the direction of the economy. David Kelly stated that the Fed is almost certain to cut rates by 25 basis points at the end of the meeting on November 7, then possibly pause its loose policy by the meeting in December.

Currently, traders are discussing various possibilities, continuously monitoring the latest opinion polls and trends in the election gambling market to predict who is leading between Trump and Harris, and what this means for their trading positions. In certain markets, some speculate that Wall Street is betting on Trump. However, when it comes to actually investing based on this, everyone remains calm. Investment professionals know that trading based on predicting winners before the facts unfold can be very profitable. But the issue is that this election has evenly matched sides, so for many investors, if expectations fall through, the risks will be unbearable.

"We do not position ourselves ahead of the election results because it's like flipping a coin," said Wealth Alliance President and CEO Eric Diton in an interview. "Betting makes no sense."

Most traders expect the market to be volatile this week, and the volatility could be significant because a contested result is very likely to delay the counting for weeks or even months. This explains why the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index has risen above 20 in the past four trading days, a level that typically indicates increased pressure on the stock market. This is also why investors are not in a rush to make investment decisions based on election result expectations.

"Past polls have always been wildly wrong," said Dave Lutz, a stock sales trader and macro strategist at JonesTrading, stressing that it's uncertain who will win or lose.

Anwiti Bahuguna, Chief Investment Officer of Global Asset Allocation at Northern Trust Asset Management, stated, "Investors need to carefully observe election risks, and traders may not even build positions at this point because of high speculation, and traders do not know which policy proposals of any candidate will actually pass in Congress."

In a recent research report, analysts Liu Gang and Li Yujie from China International Capital Corporation pointed out that if the outcome is stronger than expected, i.e., "Republican Sweep" (Trump presidency + Republican control of both houses of Congress), the current "Trump trade" will experience a period of upward momentum and magnitude, but will later enter a temporary phase of waiting for policy implementation, similar to the surge after the 2016 election and the gradual slowdown after January 2017; if the outcome is lower than expected, meaning scenarios other than "Republican Sweep", especially if Harris wins the election, this will directly lead to an immediate reversal of all trades.

Specifically, a "Republican Sweep" will strengthen the expectation of Trump's policy advancement, forcing some previously hesitant investors to quickly chase higher prices. This means there is still some room for overall "Trump trade", and the assets that were not heavily expected previously will have a larger reaction. 1) US stocks, US bonds, the US dollar and Bitcoin still have the possibility of a short-term surge, similar to the 2016 Trump trade, just with a lower rebound magnitude. After a period of trading, there may be a temporary slowdown or reversal. 2) Conversely, copper, crude oil, and the Chinese export chain may need to compensate for underestimated risks. Copper, oil, and other cyclical and resource-based risk assets may rebound due to renewed inflation expectations; gold, based on uncertainty hedging, may instead reverse; the Chinese export chain may face marginal pressure, benefiting from industries with low US export ratios and high Chinese import ratios showing relative resilience.

Any combination other than the "Republican Sweep" is likely to lead to a reversal of the Trump trade. For example, a Harris victory will directly cause a reversal of the Trump trade, such as the US dollar and US bond yields. Gold may experience a pullback, US stocks may even face some pressure, and other assets affected by Trump's policies may see the pressure relieved. If Trump wins but the Democrats control the House, the progress of incremental stimulus policies may be hindered, causing US bond yields and the US dollar to reverse, putting pressure on US stocks, while the export chain will still face pressure and gold will continue to trade based on tariff and geopolitical uncertainties.

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