Q3 业绩仍受到集采干扰。24Q3 公司收入同比下降49.03%，主要是受到国家高值耗材带量采购落地实施的影响，相关产品售价下降。国家组织的人工晶体类及运动医学类耗材集中带量采购于2023 年11 月在天津开标，公司的运动医学产品全线中标。2024 年5 月，人工关节集中带量采购接续采购在天津开标并公布中选结果，公司髋关节三个产品系统以及全膝关节系统全线中标，集采结果公布后，公司产品售价下降对24Q3 业绩造成影响。Matters:
The company released its three-quarter report of '24, 24Q1-3, operating income of 0.508 billion yuan (-35.84%), net profit to mother 0.061 billion yuan (-66.14%), deducting non-net profit of 0.044 billion yuan (-72.82%). In 24Q3, operating income was 0.128 billion yuan (-49.03%), net profit attributable to mother - -0.018 billion yuan, deducted non-net profit - -0.022 billion yuan.
Commentary:
Q3 Performance was still disrupted by collection. The 24Q3 company's revenue fell 49.03% year on year, mainly affected by the implementation of the country's high-value consumables procurement implementation, and the sales price of related products declined. The state-organized centralized procurement of artificial crystals and sports medicine consumables was opened in Tianjin in November 2023, and the company won the bid for all sports medicine products. In May 2024, the company's three hip joint product systems and total knee systems won the bid in full. After the procurement results were announced, the company's three hip joint product systems and total knee joint system won the bid. After the collection results were announced, the company's product price drop had an impact on the 24Q3 performance.
Declining revenue, gross margin, and higher expense ratios led to losses in Q3. 24Q3's gross margin was 62.70% (-4.26pct), which declined due to sports medicine collection and joint contract renewals. The 24Q3 sales expense ratio was 40.56% (+13.97pct), the management expense ratio was 7.84% (+3.88pct), the R&D expense ratio was 24.98% (+9.00pct), and the financial expenses ratio was 1.50% (+2.90pct). While revenue and gross margin declined, the company continued to maintain a certain amount of investment in R&D, sales, etc., so net profit due to loss in Q3.
Continue to improve the product line. In August 2024, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Drug Administration jointly announced the “Artificial Intelligence Medical Device Innovation Task Award Winners” list, and the company's orthopedic surgery navigation system Yangtze River INS-1 project was successfully listed. In October 2024, the company's intervertebral foramen surgical instruments and disposable sterile arthroscopic access cannula were approved. With continuous high-intensity R&D investment, product lines for joints, spine, sports medicine, trauma, and dentistry continue to be rich.
We expect that the impact of sports medicine collection and joint contract renewal on the company's channel returns and exchanges will end in '24. The company is expected to return to high growth as collection accelerates domestic replacement, the number of orthopedic surgeries continues to grow rapidly as the aging population continues to grow rapidly, and overseas business expands rapidly.
Investment advice: Since the company's 24Q3 performance is still disrupted by procurement, we expect the company's net profit to be 0.14, 0.28, and 0.35 billion yuan (the original forecast values for 24-26 were 0.27, 0.33, and 0.39 billion yuan), or -49.5%, +24.2% compared to the same period. EPS was 0.37, 0.73, and 0.91 yuan, respectively, and the corresponding PE was 37, 19, and 15 times, respectively. We gave the company a valuation of 27 times that of 2025, corresponding to a target price of about 20 yuan, maintaining a “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: 1. Risk of falling prices and declining market share after collection; 2. New business volume falls short of expectations; 3. Overseas business growth falls short of expectations.
