This week, the final "big test" of the US election, which has been moving the "nerves" of the global market for months, is about to take place.

On November 5th, Eastern Time (November 6th, Beijing Time), American voters will elect their next president, which may determine the direction of the US economy in the next four years.

Due to the unique electoral college system in the United States and the stable 'base' of both parties, most states play a role of 'going through the motions' in the election. For example, according to 270towin's summary of polls and forecasts from different models, Harris is basically locked in at 226 votes, while Trump is locked in at 219 votes (winning the election requires 270 electoral votes).

Therefore, the so-called 'battleground states' with unclear positions and tight races have become the key to the election.

This year, there are 7 swing states in the United States, with a total of 93 electoral votes: the 'blue wall' states in the north - Pennsylvania (19 votes), Michigan (15 votes), Wisconsin (10 votes); the 'sun belt' states in the south - Georgia (16 votes), Arizona (11 votes), North Carolina (16 votes), Nevada (6 votes).

It is worth noting that Pennsylvania, with 19 electoral votes, has become the 'tipping point' of this election.

This swing state with the most electoral votes can be considered a key battleground. If either Harris or Trump loses Pennsylvania, it is basically 'game over' for them on the road to the White House.

In other words, this year's US presidential election is essentially an election in Pennsylvania - whoever wins Pennsylvania wins it all.

Therefore, Futu News outlined the paths to victory for both sides in the event of Donald Trump or Harris winning or losing Pennsylvania for mooer reference.

According to the research report from China International Capital Corporation, Pennsylvania is crucial. CICC stated:

Donald Trump's path to victory: Winning only the 'Sun Belt' swing states is not enough to reach 270 electoral votes, he needs to win at least one 'Blue Wall' state.

1) If Trump wins Pennsylvania, he only needs to secure Georgia and Arizona in the Sun Belt, plus North Carolina or Nevada to achieve victory.

2) If Trump loses Pennsylvania, another more likely path is to win all four Sun Belt states and Wisconsin or Michigan, with Wisconsin having a lower lead for the Democratic party.

Harris's path to victory:

1) If Harris wins all the Blue Wall states, especially Pennsylvania, along with the currently almost secured traditional blue state votes, she will exactly reach 270, which is the more focused path in her campaign. Among these three Blue Wall states, the Democratic Party has a slight lead in Michigan and Wisconsin, uncertainty is higher in Pennsylvania, making it particularly crucial.

2) If Harris wins Pennsylvania but loses Michigan or Wisconsin, then the focus needs to shift to whether North Carolina can be reversed (where the Republican lead is lower compared to other states).

If Harris loses Pennsylvania, or loses Michigan and Wisconsin at the same time, he needs to win at least two swing states in the Sun Belt to secure victory, which is very challenging.

It is worth noting that, according to the research reports from China International Capital Corporation, there are three possible scenarios in this election that could result in a tie. In this case, the president and vice president would need to be elected by a joint vote of the House of Representatives and Senate, potentially favoring the Republican party, but causing a delay. These three possibilities are as follows,

1) Harris wins Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada;

2) Harris wins in Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona;

3) Harris wins North Carolina, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada.

If there is a tie, an emergency election will be held. The House of Representatives will elect the president, with each state's delegation of representatives casting one vote, and a total of 26 votes or more out of the 50 states in the U.S. required to win. The Senate will elect the vice president, with each senator casting one vote, and 51 votes or more needed to win. The elections for the House of Representatives and the Senate will not interfere with each other, potentially resulting in a president and vice president from different parties. At that time, the affiliation of both houses of Congress in this election will play a crucial role.

"The big show" is about to begin, get your "program" ready

Judging from the large proportion of mail-in ballots in this election and the rules in some swing states that do not allow early counting, the final results may be slightly delayed, but should be available by the afternoon or evening of the 6th of November, Beijing time.

After counting the electoral votes in each state, the first person to obtain more than 270 electoral votes threshold will become the next President of the United States. Therefore, the market will closely watch the closing time of 7 swing state polling stations.

Futu News has compiled a timetable covering each voting state for you to stay ahead and win at the starting line!

If in this election, the situation is very one-sided, it is indeed possible to determine the winner the day after election day.

For example, if Trump or Harris could sweep states with a higher number of electoral votes like Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia on the East Coast, then we may be able to determine the election results early the day after election day.

However, considering how close the polling situation is in the seven swing states this time, if we refer to the situation in the last election, we need to prepare ourselves mentally: this election may take several days to determine the results.

Trump VS Harris, how should investors deal with the election market?

As the competition between Trump and Harris intensifies, market sentiment is becoming increasingly tense.

It is widely believed in the current market that due to Trump's current position, he supports traditional energy, infrastructure construction policies; whereas if Harris takes office, there is a tendency towards welfare policies, cannabis legalization, green energy, US export growth, housing support, etc.

It is worth noting that market views believe that both the inauguration of Donald Trump and Harris are bullish for cryptos and gold.

Previously, Harris promised to support the regulatory framework for digital currencies, and options traders have been increasing their bets: regardless of who wins the U.S. election,Bitcoin (BTC.CC)Expected to reach $0.08 million by the end of November, hitting a record high.

Speaking of gold, the head of commodity strategy at Sangbao Bank stated that geopolitical risks, the US debt crisis, and shifts in monetary policy together form the reasons why gold, as a hard asset, is considered bullish. Whether it is Trump or Harris who wins the November US election, gold comes out as the winner.

Futu News also summarized some$Donald Trump concept stocks (BK22962.US)$, for reference by Mooers:

Among them, Donald Trump concept stocks include $Trump Media & Technology Group(DJT.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Phunware (PHUN.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Rumble (RUM.US)$ ;

Financial stocks include $JPMorgan (JPM.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.Bank of AmericaPlease use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Goldman Sachs (GS.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Morgan Stanley (MS.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Evercore (EVR.US)$ ;

Traditional energy companies include $Cheniere Energy (LNG.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Sony(6758.JP)$ rose nearly 2% before the market opened, and its semiconductor division will cut spending by 30% over the next three years.Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$ConocoPhillips (COP.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature., Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.Occidental Petroleum(OXY.US)Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Peabody Energy (BTU.US)$ ;

Insurance companies include $UnitedHealth Group (UNH.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Humana (HUM.US)$ ;

Biopharmaceutical companies include $Eli Lilly and Co(LLY.US)$ rose 1.52%, with a turnover of 2.1 billion US dollars. The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) analyzed the trial data of Eli Lilly's experimental Alzheimer's drug donanemab and found that it did not show significant safety signals, but also raised concerns about the safety of the drug in early patient treatment.Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.Merck (MRK.US) ;

Cryptocurrency concept stocks include $MARA Holdings (MARA.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Riot Platforms (RIOT.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$CleanSpark(CLSK.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.Coinbase.and$MicroStrategy(MSTR.US)$ Wait;

Companies benefiting from "trade protection" include $Intel(INTC.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.Texas Instruments (TXN.US)Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.Intel fell by 1.8%, with declines of more than 2% during trading. Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.andPlease use your Futubull account to access the feature.$General Motors (GM.US)$. Wait;

Agricultural equipment companies include $Tractor Supply Company (TSCO.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Deere & Company(DE.US)$ ;

Including the world's richest underdog Elon Musk, who openly supports Donald Trump $Tesla (TSLA.US)$.

In addition, $Harris concept stocks (LIST22990.US)$ 如下：

Among them, clean energy stocks include $First Solar (FSLR.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Enphase Energy (ENPH.US)$ fell nearly 9%. On the news front, JPMorgan lowered its target price for SolarEdge Technologies from $73 to $59. The bank said that demand for solar energy in European residences is still relatively weak, due to high channel inventory, low electricity pricing, and recent uncertainties related to elections. JPMorgan also lowered its target price for solar energy company Enphase Energy from $128 to $124.Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Nextracker (NXT.US)$ ;

electric vehicle stocks include $Ford Motor (F.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$General Motors (GM.US)$.Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Rivian Automotive(RIVN.US)$ ;

Consumer stocks include $Amazon (AMZN.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Walmart (WMT.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Costco (COST.US)$ ;

Cryptocurrency concept stocks include $MicroStrategy(MSTR.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.Coinbase.Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Marathon Digital(MARA.US)$ ;

Real estate stocks include $ D.R. Horton (DHI.US) $ rose more than 10% this week,Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.Lennar Corp (LEN.US)Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$ NVR Inc (NVR.US) $ ;

Cannabis stocks include $Teva Pharmaceutical Industries (TEVA.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Ltd (RDY.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.tilray brands (TLRY.US).

US election is in a close race! How to track related concept stocks? Open Tuniu > US stocks.Investment themes> Quickly identify Donald Trump concept stocks / Kamala Harris concept stocks!

Editor/Somer