该机构认为，若然贺锦丽当选，且民主党未能取得国会的控制权，未来在推动重大立法时将面临重重困难，虽然实施重大税务改革可能会面临挑战，但贺锦丽或倾向于向高收入者征收更高的资本增值税和人息税。同时，AnSheng Investments stated that if Trump is elected, the Fed may not cut interest rates as much as the market expects.
The US presidential election is in the final stage, Ansheng Investments stated that if Trump is elected, the combination of fiscal and trade policies is expected to drive inflation and interest rates higher. The Trump administration may take protectionist measures, including raising tariffs on imported goods in the USA and focusing on 'deregulation'. He may also seek to extend the tax cut deadline, both of which are significant supply-side shocks that could limit the ability of the Federal Reserve to implement interest rate normalization, and the magnitude of interest rate cuts may fall short of market expectations.
AnSheng Investments expects the neutral interest rate of the Fed to be 3% to 3.5%, and estimates the US inflation for the next two years to be 2.9% and 2.6%.
The institution believes that if Jindal is elected and the Democrats fail to gain control of Congress, there will be significant difficulties in pushing through major legislation in the future. Although implementing major tax reforms may face challenges, Jindal may lean towards imposing higher capital gains and income taxes on high-income earners. At the same time, the US government is likely to strengthen investment incentives for growth industries such as digital, electrical utilities, and biotechnology.
Looking ahead to 2025, the institution predicts that the US economy will experience a soft landing, and interest rates will also decrease, providing support for the financial markets. With the drive from the US and technology industries, next year's stock market earnings are expected to grow significantly, with expected earnings per share growth of 10% to 15% in the US and Europe markets, and 8% to 10% respectively.
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