Q3 大盘表现平淡，受单片及影院业务拖累业绩承压。1）电影大盘：24Q3 电影大盘实现票房（含服务费）108.65 亿元（YOY-44%），受优质供给缺失影响大盘承压明显；2）内容投资业务：公司24Q3 期内主要上映2 部电影《传说》（票房0.8 亿）和《红楼梦之金玉良缘》（票房601 万元），单片表现不佳对业绩造成拖累；3 ） 影院院线业务： 2024Q3 公司院线市占率约为2.26%（YOY+0.12pct），影投市占率约为2.09%（YOY+0.05pct），整体市占率稳定。Matters:
The company achieved revenue of 0.32 billion yuan (YOY -32%), net loss due to mother of 0.216 billion yuan (YOY -856%), and net loss of 0.251 billion yuan (YOY -5108%).
Commentary:
The performance of the Q3 market was lackluster, and performance was weighed down by the single-film and cinema business. 1) Movie market: The 24Q3 movie market achieved 10.865 billion yuan (YOY -44%) in the box office (YOY -44%), which was clearly under pressure due to lack of quality supply; 2) Content investment business: The company mainly screened 2 movies “Legend” (0.08 billion) and “Red Mansion Dream: Golden Jade” (box office 6.01 million yuan). Poor single film performance dragged down the performance; 3) Cinema line business: the 2024Q3 company's cinema market share was about 2.26 billion% (YOY+0.12pct), the film investment market share is about 2.09% (YOY+0.05pct), and the overall market share is stable.
However, due to the influence of the movie market, the cinema business is expected to be under pressure, and the cost is quite rigid.
Q4 “Shangganling” has been launched and is actively exploring new technologies such as AI+. The 10/14 main theme series “Shangganling” was released on CCTV-1 Gold. According to Lighthouse Statistics, its cumulative broadcast volume is ~0.142 billion. In addition, the company is actively exploring AI+ film and television. In July '24, the AIGC generated continuous narrative sci-fi short series “Sanxingdui: Future Apocalypse” was launched on Douyin.
Looking ahead to the future, the film reserves are abundant, and the product will last 25 years. We look forward to flexible contributions to performance. The company reserves films such as “Operation Jiaolong” (Red Sea IP sequel, expected to be released in 25 years), “Princess of Kashmir” (directed by Liu Weiqiang, screenwriter He Jiping), and “Battle of the Bodies” (directed by Xu Ke, animated film). The themes are rich, involving themes such as main themes and animation. Some films are expected to be released in 25 years, and we are looking forward to contributing more flexibility to the company.
Investment advice: As a leading domestic film and television production company, the company is optimistic about the company's content investment capabilities and overall industry chain layout advantages. It looks forward to the steady development of the film and television industry+the company's rich film reserves, and is optimistic about the company's subsequent development. Since the performance of the main projection film in '24 fell short of expectations and the schedule of subsequent film releases was adjusted, we now lower our previous expectations. We now expect the company's net profit to be -0.492 billion yuan/0.408 billion/ 0.558 billion yuan respectively (the original net profit to mother for 24-25 was 0.385 billion yuan/0.53 billion yuan). The valuation was based on a relative valuation method, giving the company a valuation of 30 times PE in 25 years, corresponding to 25 The target market value for the year is 12.3 billion yuan, corresponding to 8.9 yuan per share, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: changes in schedule, movie box office performance falls short of expectations, industry policy adjustments
