We continue to target between 198m and 200m passengers in FY25 (+8%), subject to no worsening of current Boeing delivery delays. Unit costs performed well in H1 as the cost gap between Ryanair and EU competitor airlines continues to widen. We expect full-year unit costs to be broadly flat, as our fuel hedge savings, strong interest income and some modest aircraft delay compensation will largely offset ex-fuel cost inflation (particularly crew pay & productivity increases, higher handling & ATC fees and the cost inefficiency of repeated B737 delivery delays). Forward bookings suggest that Q3 demand is strong and the decline in pricing appears to be moderating. We remain cautious on Q3's ave. fare outlook, expecting them to be modestly lower than Q3 prior year (subject to close-in Christmas and New Year bookings). As is normal at this time of year, we have almost zero Q4 visibility, although this quarter will not benefit from last year's early Easter, which will make the prior year Q4 comps challenging. It therefore remains too early to provide meaningful FY25 PAT guidance. The final FY25 outcome will be subject to avoiding adverse developments during the remaining 5 months of FY25, especially given the risk of conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, repeated ATC short-staffing and capacity restrictions, and/or further Boeing delivery delays."
Ryanair Targets 8% Traffic Growth In FY25, Contingent On Boeing Deliveries; Full-Year Unit Costs Expected To Remain Flat; Q3 Fares To Decline Modestly, With Limited Q4 Visibility
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