Fidelity International stated that, affected by the tightening of credit spreads and the decline in US Treasury yields, it is expected that the performance of high-yield assets in Asia will be positive.
According to the WiseMoney APP, Chan Lap Hang, director of Fidelity International's investment strategy, stated that the initiation of rate cuts by major central banks globally will drive market sentiment. From a diversified asset perspective, it is expected to benefit risk assets, with stocks investments likely to benefit. In terms of regional distribution, Fidelity prefers US stocks, as the Fed has shifted its focus from suppressing inflation to monitoring the downward trend in the job market and has timely provided support signals to the economy. Currently, the US employment and consumer markets remain stable, but the uncertainty about growth prospects keeps investors cautious. Fidelity also prefers high-quality corporate stocks.
On the other hand, it is stated that Fidelity maintains a wait-and-see attitude towards European and Japanese stocks. Data shows a soft economic outlook for the Eurozone, especially in Germany and France, reflecting the importance of further easing measures to stimulate economic activity after the softer post-Paris Olympics in France. Local wage inflation in Japan drives consumer demand, while giving the Bank of Japan more room for interest rate hikes. The Japanese economy faces a dilemma of domestic structural reflation and weak external growth, the hawkish stance of the Bank of Japan goes against the global trend of central bank easing, bringing upward pressure to the yen and downward pressure to the Japanese stock market.
In other parts of Asia, the ASEAN markets benefit from the Fed's rate cut cycle and the weakening of the US dollar, alleviating local currency pressures and allowing for local rate cuts. ASEAN markets also benefit from fund rotation, with capital flowing into local markets from tech-heavy South Korea and Taiwan. In addition, valuations of Indian stocks are gradually increasing, and investors are advised to deploy selectively.
Fidelity International's Head of Fixed Income Investments in Asia, Chen Wing Sze, stated that over the next 6 months, Asian fixed income investments will face various intertwined forces, including macroeconomic factors, policy shifts, and market sentiment trends. The Fed's rate cut cycle undoubtedly prepares Asian markets for monetary easing policies. Some markets like Indonesia and the Philippines have already cut rates, and it is expected that other Asian central banks will follow suit. The lower interest rate environment will benefit bond prices, thereby benefiting overall fixed income investments. Asian investment grade credit continues to show solid fundamentals, low leverage ratios, and healthy liquidity. The resilience of Asian investment grade companies, especially in the face of global economic uncertainty, helps provide stability to investors' portfolios.
Fidelity International expects credit spreads to remain within a range of fluctuations, providing attractive income opportunities. Affected by the tightening of credit spreads and the decline in US Treasury yields, it is expected that the performance of high-yield assets in Asia will be positive. The fundamentals of high-yield companies in Asia still have support, and the default rate is expected to be low. Considering the current environment, Fidelity suggests that investors pay more attention to high-quality bonds and selectively allocate high-yield bond opportunities. At the same time, investing in investment grade bonds and high-yield bonds to build a diversified investment portfolio helps control risks and earn profit opportunities. In addition, investors should pay attention to policy development directions and macroeconomic data in the next 6 months to respond to market trends.