投资建议：公 司作为国内工程机械行业龙头，受益于国内工程机械行业复苏，国际竞争力强，拥有避免贸易摩擦的实力，看好公司业绩成长。公司持续提质降本，有望提升盈利能力，略微上修2024-2026 年EPS 为0.72、0.94、1.21 元（原来0.71、0.92、1.13 元）。可比公司2024 年对应PE 均值为19 倍，考虑到公司的龙头地位，各方面表现优于同行，给与公司2024 年PE 30 倍，上调目标价为21.62元，维持增持评级。Introduction to this report:
As a domestic construction machinery leader, the company is progressing smoothly with electrification and digital intelligence, has global competitiveness, high recognition in the domestic market, far-reaching overseas layout, has the ability to avoid trade frictions, and is optimistic about the company's performance growth.
Key points of investment:
Investment advice: As a leader in the domestic construction machinery industry, the company benefits from the recovery of the domestic construction machinery industry, has strong international competitiveness, has the ability to avoid trade frictions, and is optimistic about the company's performance growth. The company continues to improve quality and reduce costs, and is expected to increase profitability. The 2024-2026 EPS will be slightly upgraded to 0.72, 0.94, and 1.21 yuan (originally 0.71, 0.92, 1.13 yuan). Comparatively, the average PE value corresponding to the company in 2024 was 19 times. Considering the company's leading position, it performed better than its peers. The company was given 30 times PE in 2024, raised the target price by 21.62 yuan, and maintained an increase in holdings rating.
The performance was in line with expectations. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 58.36 billion yuan/ +3.9%, and achieved revenue of 19.3 billion yuan/ +18.9% in the Q3 quarter. The revenue growth rate was superior to that of peers, mainly because the company's overseas revenue accounted for more than 60%, and overseas revenue maintained rapid growth; by category, the company maintained rapid growth in excavators and concrete, and cranes increased slightly year-on-year. Net profit to mother was 4.87 billion yuan/ +19.7% in the first three quarters of 2024; net profit to mother was 1.3 billion yuan/ +96.5% in a single quarter, mainly due to rapid revenue growth and obvious cost control.
The effect of improving quality and reducing costs is evident. 2024Q3 has a gross margin of 28.9% /-1.1 pct, which may be dragged down by domestic cranes and other businesses. 2024Q3 has a sales expense ratio of 8.4% /-1.3 pct, a management expense ratio of 3.5% /-0.5pct, a R&D expense ratio of 6.4% /-1.9pct, and a financial expense ratio of 0.1% /-2.9pct. The four major cost ratios all declined markedly, partly due to year-on-year revenue growth, and on the other hand, because cost control has already been effective, the year-on-year growth rate of the four major expenses was lower than the revenue growth rate. Among them, R&D expenses and financial expenses declined year-on-year.
The company leads the “three modernization” development trend of the industry, and the overseas layout avoids trade frictions. The company's digital intelligence, electrification, and internationalization strategies have achieved positive results. The range of electrified products is rich, and electric excavators and electric pump trucks have begun to be mass-produced; the international market is growing rapidly, and overseas sales revenue accounts for more than 60% of the company's revenue; in terms of digital intelligence, the global manufacturing layout is vigorously promoted, domestic intelligent manufacturing technology is promoted to overseas manufacturing, and manufacturing platform changes enhance manufacturing resource sharing and collaboration, and achieve transformation from export to overseas, which can effectively avoid trade frictions. The company quickly opened up foreign markets with its own technology and reputation, driving steady growth in performance and crossing the cycle.
Risk warning: Domestic market demand recovery falls short of expectations, and overseas market expansion falls short of expectations.
