盈利预测与评级：我们预计公司24-26 年净利润分别为19.99、21.01、21.94亿元，同比-0.4%、+5.1%、+4.4%，当前收盘价对应24-25 年PE 为13.63、12.97 倍，公司作为软体家具龙头企业，参考可比公司给予公司2025 年13~14倍PE 估值，对应合理价值区间33.23~35.79 元，对应2025 年1.34~1.44 倍PS 估值，给予“优于大市”评级。The company's 2024Q3 business situation: In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 13.801 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.37%; realized net profit of 1.359 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.49%; realized net profit deducted from non-mother 1.219 billion yuan, or -10.67% year-on-year. Among them, 2024Q3 achieved operating income of 4.893 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.94%; realized net profit of 0.463 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.92%; and realized net profit deducted from non-mother of 0.438 billion yuan, or -16.87% year-on-year.
Gross profit margin declined slightly year-on-year, and the intensity of expenditure remained stable. 1) On the profit side, in the first three quarters of 2024, the company's net sales profit margin and gross sales margin were 10.09% and 31.88%, respectively, -0.54 pct and -0.47 pct year on year; of these, in 2024Q3, the company's net sales profit margin and gross sales margin were 9.65% and 29.80%, respectively, -1.36 pct and -3.96 pct, respectively. 2) On the expense side, in the first three quarters of 2024, the company's sales expense ratio, management expense ratio, R&D expense ratio, and financial expense ratio were 16.23%, 2.18%, 1.38%, and -0.07%, respectively, +0.28pct, +0.03pct, -0.45pct, and -0.21pct, respectively; of these, in 2024Q3, the company's sales expense ratio, management expense rate, R&D expense ratio, and financial expense ratio were 13.99%, 1.73%, 1.47%, and 0.72% year-on-year, respectively. 0.45pct, +0.08pct, +0.12pct
Launch an equity incentive plan to promote the long-term development of the enterprise. In September 2024, Gujia Home Furnishing launched an equity incentive plan for its 84 core executives. The company-level assessment goals are: the first period to lift the sales restriction: net profit in 2025 is not less than the average net profit for the three years from 2021 to 2023; the second period to lift the sales restriction: net profit in 2026 is not less than 105% of the average net profit for the three years from 2021 to 2023; and the third period for lifting the sales restriction: net profit in 2027 is not less than 110.25% of the average net profit for the three years 2021 to 2023.
Profit forecast and rating: We expect the company's net profit for 24-26 to be 1.999, 2.101, and 2.194 billion yuan, respectively, -0.4%, +5.1%, and +4.4%. The current closing price corresponds to the 24-25 PE of 13.63 and 12.97 times. As a leading soft furniture company, the company, as a leading soft furniture company, gave the company a PE valuation of 13 to 14 times in 2025, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 33.23 to 35.79 yuan, corresponding to 1.34 to 1.44 times PS in 2025 The valuation gives a “better than the market” rating.
Risk warning: raw material prices fluctuate, market competition intensifies, international trade frictions.
