来风资源欠佳，风电发电机上网电量承压。1-9 月公司完成发电量98.36 亿千瓦时，同比下降3.31%，其中3Q24 公司控股发电量23.05 亿千瓦时，同比减少2.29%，主要系公司平均风速下降等自然条件因素影响。9M24 公司弃风率同比下降0.7 pct 至7.56%，部分抵消风光利用小时数下降影响。9M24公司上网电量同比下降3.45%，其中风电、光伏分别实现上网电量94.61 亿千瓦时及1.36 亿千瓦时，同比下降3.52%及上升1.36%。前三季度，公司经营核心区域河北省风电上网电量下降6.18%。电价方面，9M24 公司平均上网电价（不含税）维持在0.44 元/千瓦时，与去年同期及环比上半年持平。Key points of investment:
Event: The company released its 2024 three-quarter report. In January-September, the company achieved operating income of 15.789 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.31%; net profit to mother was 1.495 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.74%. Among them, 3Q24 achieved net profit of 0.066 billion yuan to mother, a year-on-year decrease of 3.14%, which is basically in line with our expectations.
Natural gas sales continued to increase, and LNG and wholesale gas consumption grew rapidly. In January-September, gas transmission volume was 4.509 billion cubic meters, up 37.09% year on year; of these, wholesale gas volume was 1.487 billion cubic meters, up 14.61% year on year; retail gas volume was 1.454 billion cubic meters, up 5.43% year on year; and LNG gas sales volume was 0.947 billion cubic meters, up 893.26% year on year. The first phase of the Tangshan Caofeidian LNG Terminal project and the main outbound pipeline line were put into operation at the beginning of the year, and imported LNG sales continued to explode in the third quarter. Although retail gas volume fell 15.4% year on year in the third quarter due to a drop in demand from some industrial users, the company's wholesale gas volume increased 37.7% year on year in the third quarter against the backdrop of increased sales outside the province at the same time, showing a rapid development trend in the third quarter.
Incoming wind resources are poor, and the feed-in power of wind turbines is under pressure. In January-September, the company completed 9.836 billion kilowatt-hours of power generation, a year-on-year decrease of 3.31%. Among them, 3Q24 held 2.305 billion kilowatt-hours of power generation, a year-on-year decrease of 2.29%, mainly due to natural factors such as a decrease in the company's average wind speed. 9M24's wind abandonment rate decreased by 0.7 pct to 7.56% year on year, partially offsetting the impact of the decline in the number of hours of wind utilization. 9M24's feed-in electricity volume decreased by 3.45% year on year. Among them, wind power and photovoltaics achieved feed-in power of 9.461 billion kilowatt-hours and 0.136 billion kilowatt-hours, respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 3.52% and an increase of 1.36%. In the first three quarters, the feed-in electricity volume of wind power in Hebei Province, the company's core area of operation, fell 6.18%. In terms of electricity prices, 9M24's average feed-in tariff (excluding tax) remained at 0.44 yuan/kilowatt-hour, the same as the same period last year and the first half of the month.
The company plans to divest photovoltaic assets and focus on the development of the main wind power and natural gas industries. According to the company's announcement, the company will continue to focus on the wind power generation and natural gas industry in the future, and plans to gradually sell the existing photovoltaic business, mainly due to factors such as the return on investment in photovoltaic projects, which are greatly constrained by changes in national land policy. Currently, the company has abundant project reserves and a high capital expenditure scale. The divestment of the photovoltaic business will help the company gradually return capital and enhance the competitiveness of the main high-return wind power and natural gas industry. Since this year, the company's offshore wind power approval pace has accelerated. In the third quarter, the company approved an additional 0.8 million kilowatts of offshore wind power projects. According to the company's announcement, the company plans to increase the capital of the holding subsidiary Hebei Construction Investment Offshore Wind Power Co., Ltd. by 0.364 billion yuan. After the capital increase, the company's shareholding ratio will still be 51%. It will provide financial support for CCIC's 250MW Xiangyun Island and 250MW Seafreeze projects and other potential projects, which can ensure the smooth progress of project construction and early commissioning. In terms of natural gas, the second phase of the company's LNG receiving station project is under construction and is expected to be put into operation by the end of 2025. At that time, it will support the continuous gradual growth of the company's LNG trade volume. The company's focus on the main wind power and natural gas industry can support the steady growth of the company's performance, which is conducive to improving the overall return of the project, and is optimistic that profit stability will continue to improve after the company's business adjustments.
Profit forecast and rating: We maintain the 2024-2026 net profit forecast of the company at 2.392, 3.003, and 3.474 billion yuan, respectively. The current stock price corresponds to 2024-2026 PE of 5.6, 4.4, and 3.8 times, respectively. Referring to the 2023 dividend ratio, assuming that the 2024 dividend ratio is 40%, the company's dividend rate is as high as 7.2% based on current stock prices, and the high dividend ratio increases the allocation value. Maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Natural gas sales fell short of expectations, incoming wind conditions were weak, and the scale of new grid-connected installations fell short of expectations.
