金价持续高位运行，需求端承压。今年金价持续走高，急速上涨的金价使得消费者观望情绪浓厚，传导至加盟商端，补货意愿减弱。据国家统计局数据，24年1-9 月限额以上黄金珠宝累计同比-3.1%，特别是进入5 月同比变动环比大幅下滑，5-9 月同比分别为-11%/-3.7%/-10.4%/-12%/-7.8%，显示消费者消费力疲弱，对黄金珠宝需求下滑。公司前三季度收入有所下滑，从主要渠道来看：Matters:
According to the announcement, in the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 10.809 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.49%, and realized net profit of 0.855 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.95%; a single Q3 achieved operating income of 2.612 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 40.91%, and realized net profit to mother of 0.253 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28.70%.
Commentary:
Gold prices continue to run high, and demand is under pressure. Gold prices have continued to rise this year. The rapid rise in gold prices has caused consumers to have a strong wait-and-see sentiment, which is transmitted to franchisees, and their willingness to replenish goods has weakened. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the cumulative year-on-year ratio for gold and jewelry above the limit from January to September '24 was -3.1%. In particular, the year-on-year change in May had a sharp month-on-month decline. The year-on-year change in May-September was -11%/-3.7%/-10.4%/-12%/-7.8%, respectively, indicating weak consumer spending power and a decline in demand for gold and jewelry. The company's revenue declined in the first three quarters. Judging from the main channels:
1) Offline self-employment: achieved revenue of 1.35 billion yuan, up 9.77% year on year, accounting for 12.5% of revenue; 2) e-commerce: achieved revenue of 1.65 billion yuan, up 5.94% year on year, accounting for 15.3% of revenue; 3) Franchise: achieved revenue of 0.77 billion yuan, down 19.75% year on year, accounting for 70.9% of revenue. Looking at the main products: 1) mosaic category: achieved revenue of 0.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.46%, accounting for 5.4% of revenue; 2) Raw gold: achieved revenue of 8.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.04%, accounting for 82.3% of revenue.
Offline stores continued to be opened, and both gross margin and net profit margin improved. In the first three quarters, the company opened 474 new stores, including 421 franchise stores and 53 self-operated stores; by the end of September, the company had 5235 stores, including 4,886 franchised stores and 349 self-operated stores. In the third quarter of a single quarter, the company achieved gross profit margin of 27.5%, yoy+9.7pct, net profit margin of 9.7% to mother, and yoy+1.7pct.
Investment advice: As a leading jewelry brand, the company continuously optimizes product categories, strengthens product design, and promotes channel expansion. It has potential for growth in the long term. However, considering the macroeconomic environment and the effect of continued high gold prices on demand, we lowered our 24-26 net profit forecast to 1.11/1.31/1.4 billion yuan (previous value 1.45/1.64/1.82 billion yuan). Referring to comparable companies in the industry, the company was given 11xPE for 25 years, corresponding to a market capitalization of 14.4 billion yuan and a target price of 13.1 yuan/share, maintaining a “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: Consumer confidence is weak, offline traffic is declining, gold prices fluctuate, competition intensifies, and store expansion falls short of expectations
