The US 2024 election will take place this week. Just when many people thought the victory was leaning towards the Republican presidential candidate Trump, the latest poll shows that a key state may be turning blue, directly leading to a significant increase in the winning probability of Democratic presidential candidate Harris, making the general election situation unpredictable once again.

In reporting on US elections, the media often use colors to refer to the two parties. The Republican Party is represented by red, and states that tend to support the party are called 'Red States'; blue represents the Democratic Party, and states that tend to support the party are called 'Blue States'.

Is Iowa turning blue?

A poll published by the Des Moines Register last Saturday showed that Harris leads Trump in Iowa (also known as the state of Iowa) by 47% to 44%, a 3 percentage point lead.

Iowa is located in the midwestern United States and is typically seen as an agricultural state. Des Moines is the capital and largest city of Iowa.

Looking back on all the US presidential elections since 1972, Iowa has leaned more towards the Republican Party, especially in the past two presidential elections (2016 and 2020), where Trump won the state by significant margins of 9 percentage points and 8 percentage points respectively.

Considering that Trump won Iowa in the previous two elections, if Harris is likely to win the state, it means the campaign landscape may be reshaped.

Trump's reaction was strong.

Regarding this poll result, Trump reacted strongly. Last Sunday, he posted on his personal social media platform Truth Social, "No president has done more for farmers and the great state of Iowa than Donald J. Trump. In fact, no one even comes close!"

"All polls show that I am significantly ahead, except for one poll hosted by Democratic Party biased against Trump, whose last prediction was completely wrong. I love farmers, and they love me," said Trump.

The poll by the Des Moines Register is conducted by veteran pollster J Ann Selzer, who accurately predicted Trump's victories in Iowa in 2016 and 2020.

Also from the Des Moines Register's poll, in September, Trump led Harris by 4 percentage points in Iowa, and in June, he led Biden by 18 percentage points (at that time, Biden had not withdrawn).

The Des Moines Register poll indicates that independent voters, women, and elderly voters are the key drivers of Harris's rise in Iowa.

Both Trump and Harris' campaign teams spent a significant amount of time in 7 key swing states (also known as battleground states), but after the primaries, neither of them campaigned in Iowa.

Despite the shocking poll from the Des Moines Register, the latest poll from Emerson College in Iowa shows that Trump still leads Harris by a significant 10 percentage points.

Trump also emphasized this on Truth Social on Sunday, writing: "Just out, the Emerson poll shows me leading by 10 percentage points in Iowa, thank you!"

Editor/new