Jingu Information | Open Source Securities Research Institute pointed out that li auto inc (02015) delivered 0.0514 million vehicles in October 2024, guiding for 0.16-0.17 million vehicles in 2024Q4, mainly through increasing sales autonomy in various regional channels to ensure stable growth in sales in 2024Q4, corresponding to delivering an average of 0.055-0.06 million vehicles in November and December, and a total of 0.501-0.511 million vehicles for the year; guiding for 43.2-45.9 billion yuan in revenue in 2024Q4, with an implied ASP assumption of 0.27 million yuan remaining flat compared to the previous month, indicating that the company's promotional activities are expected to remain stable in 2024Q4. The rapid iteration of ADmax asia vets function, combined with end-to-end + VLM model support, has significantly improved NOA takeover rate and safety performance. The one-click asia vets from parking space to parking space, and the nationwide ETC non-withdrawal function are expected to be fully pushed to all ADmax users by the end of December 2024, potentially driving the increase in the proportion of high gross margin max models. By relying on technological innovation, component platform reuse, and digital smart factories to continuously reduce the cost per vehicle, the company is expected to boost autos gross margin.

Based on the stable competitiveness of extended-range models, the bank has raised the company's revenue forecast from 133.1/156.7/181.6 billion yuan for 2024-2026 to 145.8/169.2/216.2 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 18%/16%/28%; based on the steady improvement in autos gross margin and good control over operating expenses, the company's 2024-2026 Non-GAAP net income forecast has been raised from 7.8/8.2/10.7 billion yuan to 10.7/13.2/17.8 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS of 5.1/6.2/8.2 yuan, with the current stock price of 97.10 Hong Kong dollars corresponding to 1.1/0.9/0.7 times PS for 2024-2026, and 14.7/12.1/9.0 times PE. The stable volume and price in 2024Q4 reserve potential sales for 2025, the pure electric platform is still in a low-key improvement process, possibly creating surprise hit products, rapid iteration of ADmax asia vets function, and solidifying long-term competitiveness in digital factories, prompting an upgrade to a "buy" rating.