（1）2024Q1-3 经纪业务净收入13 亿元，同比-26%，Q3 经纪业务净收入4 亿，同比-29%，环比-16%，主要受市场交易额低迷影响，2024Q3 日均股基成交额8073亿元，同比-12%，环比-15%。期末客户保证金环比+45%，客户保证金环比高增。Brokerage investment banks' revenue was under year-on-year pressure, and the return on proprietary investment rebounded
2024Q1-3's operating income/net profit to mother was 8.8/1.3 billion yuan, -1%/-17% YoY, and Q3 net profit was 0.38 billion yuan, reversing losses year on year, -38% month-on-month. The 2024Q1-3 annualized weighted average ROE was 3.08%, -0.9 pct year over year, and the leverage ratio at the end of the period (after deducting customer security deposit) was 3.7 times, -0.03 times higher than at the beginning of the year. The company's handling fee revenue performance was under pressure, and the year-on-year increase in investment income supported the performance. We raised our assumptions on market trading volume and return on proprietary investments, and revised the 2024-2026 net profit forecast to 2.2/2.7/3.3 billion yuan (previously adjusted 18/26/28), and EPS to 0.25/0.31/0.38 yuan. The company continues to improve its customer-centered wealth management and two-wheel drive business systems for large institutional businesses. The current stock price is 1.0/0.9/0.9 times PB, respectively, maintaining a “buy” rating.
High increase in customer security deposits, year-on-year decline in investment bank revenue, and year-on-year increase in asset management revenue
(1) 2024Q1-3 brokerage net revenue was 1.3 billion yuan, -26% YoY; Q3 brokerage net revenue was 0.4 billion yuan, -29% YoY, -16% month-on-month, mainly affected by sluggish market turnover. 2024Q3 had an average daily share base turnover of 807.3 billion yuan, -12% YoY and -15% month-on-month. The customer guarantee at the end of the period was +45% month-on-month, and the customer security deposit increased month-on-month.
(2) 2024Q1-3 Investment Bank's net revenue was 0.44 billion yuan, -43% YoY. 2024Q3 was 0.18 billion yuan, -7% YoY and +22% YoY. (3) Net revenue from the 2024Q1-3 asset management business was 1.2 yuan, +6% year-on-year. The expected increase in scale was driven by revenue growth. 2024H1 Xingzheng Asset Management AUM was 86.2 billion yuan, +2% compared to the beginning of the year.
Net interest income declined year-on-year, and the return on proprietary investments rebounded
(1) 2024Q1-3 net interest income was 0.88 billion yuan, -39% year over year, and interest income/interest expense -9%/+8% year over year, mainly due to a year-on-year decrease in interest income on bank deposits and a year-on-year increase in interest expenses on interest-paying debts. The company's balance at the end of the period was 26.9 billion yuan, -2% month-on-month, 1.88% market share, and -0.01pct month-on-month. (2) In 2024Q1-3, the company's investment income (including fair value profit and loss) was 2.22 billion yuan, +163% year-on-year, 1.03 billion yuan in the third quarter, +21% month-on-month. The return on 2024Q1-3 annualized proprietary investment was 3.4% (2024H1 was 2.7%), and the return on proprietary investment rebounded due to the rise in the stock market at the end of September. At the end of the period, proprietary investment financial assets were 82.2 billion yuan, -5% year-on-year, and -6% compared to the beginning of the year. (3) The management cost of 2024Q1-3 was 4.8 billion yuan, -1% year-on-year, and the decline was reduced from -7% in 2024H1.
Risk warning: Stock market fluctuations affect the return on proprietary investments; wealth management business growth falls short of expectations.