Incident: COSCO Haifa announced the 2024 three-quarter report. The company achieved operating income of 19.872 billion yuan in the first three quarters, up 88.8% year on year; net profit to mother was 1.381 billion yuan, up 14.7% year on year; net profit after deducting non-return to mother was 1.127 billion yuan, up 6.9% year on year. In the third quarter, the company's revenue was 8.112 billion yuan, up 68.7% year on year; net profit to mother was 0.486 billion yuan, up 368.5% year on year; net profit after deducting non-return to mother was 0.467 billion yuan, up 413.5% year on year.

The company focuses on the main line of the shipping logistics industry, with container manufacturing, container leasing, and shipping leasing business chains as its core business. The company has been operating in the shipping industry for many years, has a deep understanding of the cycle, and can provide one-stop service for upstream, middle and downstream enterprises in a professional and comprehensive manner. The company's container manufacturing business ranked second in the world in production capacity. In the first half of 2024, the company's container manufacturing business accounted for 83.18% of revenue and 24.89% of gross profit; the scale of the container leasing business ranked among the highest in the world, accounting for 21.9% of revenue in the first half of 2024, accounting for 44.68% of gross profit; the scale of the shipping leasing business was at the forefront of the industry, with outstanding scale advantages, accounting for 9.99% of revenue in the first half of 2024, accounting for 32.65% of gross profit.

Global trade, new container ship packing, and replacement of old containers will support container demand. According to World Bank forecasts, international trade will maintain a 2.5% growth rate in 2024; on this basis, changes in the global trade pattern will increase intermediate circulation links, container turnover efficiency will decrease, and the absolute amount of containers required by the market will increase; at the same time, with the launch of new containers in the future and the demand for distribution compounded by the renewal of old containers, we believe that demand for containers will continue to grow well in the future. According to Deluli's forecast, the production and sales volume of the container manufacturing market will be higher than in 2023. The total production and sales volume is expected to reach 9 millionTEU in 24-25.

Pay attention to cash dividends, and the repurchase plan continues to pay back to investors. In 2023, the company distributed a dividend of RMB 0.032 per share, and the company distributed a cash dividend of RMB 0.019 per share to all shareholders on October 28, 2024.

The company announced in October 2024 that it plans to repurchase 40 million shares to 80 million A shares of the company. The maximum repurchase price is 3.59 yuan/share, and the estimated repurchase amount is RMB 0.1436 billion to -0.2872 billion yuan. In addition, the company implemented the repurchase of the company's H shares in accordance with the general mandate approved by the shareholders' meeting in June 2024. On November 1, the company initiated the repurchase of H shares.

Profit forecast and investment advice: We consider that global trade, new container ship distribution, and old container replacement will support container demand. The company's container manufacturing business has maintained a certain growth, and the ship leasing business has brought growth to the company after the delivery of new ships in 2027. We recommend investors continue to pay attention, cover for the first time, and give a “holding” rating.

Risk warning: Risks such as economic recovery falling short of expectations, exchange rate fluctuations, and shipping market fluctuations.