[Incident] China Taibao announced third quarter results: 1) Net profit to mother for the first three quarters was 38.3 billion yuan, +65.5% year over year; Q3 single quarter net profit was 13.2 billion yuan, +173.6% year over year. We believe that the sharp increase in the company's Q3 net profit was mainly affected by the rise in the capital market at the end of September. 2) Net assets to mother were $273.3 billion, +9.5% compared to the beginning of the year and +2.3% compared to the middle of the year. 3) Weighted ROE 14.6%, +4.7pct year over year.

Life insurance: Q3 NBV was +75.3% year-on-year in a single quarter, and the quantity and quality of core and new manpower increased sharply. 1) NBV 14.2 billion yuan in the first three quarters, +37.9% year over year; Q3 single quarter NBV 5.2 billion yuan, +75.3% year over year. NBV margin 20.1%, +6.2pct year over year. We expect that the increase in NBV margin is mainly due to the combined reduction of channel rates by the integration of reporting banks. 2) New policy premiums for individual insurances were +16.3% year-on-year in the first three quarters, of which the amount of new insurance payments was +12.4% year-on-year.

Q3 The premium for a new policy in a single quarter was +36.6% year over year, and the amount of the new insurance payment was +37.0% year over year. 3) Banking Insurance premiums for new policies in the first three quarters were -18.4%. Among them, the amount of new insurance premiums paid by individuals during the long-term insurance period was +23.2% year-on-year. Q3 Premium for new orders in a single quarter was +7.5% year-on-year. 4) The manpower of the core team increased steadily, with an average monthly core workforce of 0.058 million people, +2.4% compared to the same period, and the monthly premium of the core workforce was 0.061 million yuan per person for the first year, or 0.061 million yuan, compared to the previous year. The quantity and quality of new personnel increased rapidly, with the increase in manpower +15.5% year-on-year, and the first-year premium per newcomer per month +35.0% year-on-year.

Industrial insurance: COR remained flat year over year, with non-vehicle premiums accounting for overtaking insurance. 1) Premium revenue for the first three quarters was 159.8 billion yuan, +7.7% YoY; of these, car insurance premiums were +3.2% YoY; non-car premiums were +12.2% YoY. 2) The comprehensive underwriting cost ratio was 98.7%, the same as the same period last year. Mainly due to the control of car insurance business expenses, car insurance costs have been further optimized. 3) We believe that the increase in COR in Q3 compared to H1 was mainly due to more natural disasters in the third quarter of this year, which led to an increase in non-car insurance claims.

Investment: Affected by the rise in the capital market, the total return on investment increased significantly over the same period last year. 1) The Group's investment assets were 2584.3 billion yuan, +14.9% compared to the beginning of the year. 2) Unannualized net return on investment 2.9%, -0.1 pct year on year; return on total unannualized investment 4.7%, +2.3 pct year over year. We believe that the sharp year-on-year increase in total return on investment was mainly due to the rise in the equity market in the third quarter.

The valuation is still low, and the rating is “superior to the market”. We are optimistic about the firm “long-term aviation” transformation of the company's life insurance sector, continuing to focus on customer-centered value creation, accelerating the forging of new quality productivity, and committed to building a life insurance company with the best service experience and being a long-term practitioner in the life insurance industry; the property insurance sector adheres to sustainable high-quality development, strengthens quality control, improves the efficiency of risk reduction services, and helps prevent and reduce disasters. As of November 1, 2024, the company's stock price corresponds to 2024E PEV 0.62x. We gave the company 0.7-0.8 times the 2024 PEV, a reasonable value range of 41.70-47.65 yuan, and a “superior to the market” rating.

Risk warning: 1) long-term interest rates are trending downward, 2) the stock market fluctuates greatly, and 3) new premium growth falls short of expectations.