养殖业务：前三季度养殖业务实现销售收入101.09 亿元，同比+2.13%；销售数量102.30 万吨，同比+18.87%；销售均价9881.72 元/吨，同比-14.08%。Performance Overview:
The company released its three-quarter report for 2024: revenue of 13.762 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, -1.18% YoY, and net profit to mother 0.383 billion yuan, or -48.25% YoY. Among them, the 2024Q3 company achieved operating income of 4.925 billion yuan, +1.62% YoY, +6.55% month-on-month, and net profit to mother 0.281 billion yuan, -10.38% YoY and +71.16%. Performance is gradually repaired as sales volume increases, costs are reduced. The year-on-year decline in performance was mainly due to the low price of chicken from the beginning of the year to date, which affected the company's product prices.
Release of production capacity boosts sales, reduces costs, increases efficiency, and profits pick up
Aquaculture business: In the first three quarters, the farming business achieved sales revenue of 10.109 billion yuan, +2.13% year over year; sales volume was 1.023 million tons, +18.87% year over year; average sales price was 9881.72 yuan/ton, -14.08% year over year.
Food business: In the first three quarters, the food business achieved sales revenue of 5.9 billion yuan, -3.52% year on year; sales volume 0.2672 million tons, +9.33% year over year; average sales price 0.0221 million yuan/ton, -11.75% year over year.
The increase in product sales is mainly due to the company's continuous expansion of breeding and food production capacity in recent years. Currently, it has a white feather chicken breeding capacity of more than 0.7 billion feathers, and the total production capacity for deep processing of food already built and under construction exceeds 0.5 million tons. Furthermore, the company further consolidated its cost advantage. In September, the cost of a single ton of comprehensive meat production hit a new low during the year, and the profit for that month reached the best monthly level in the first three quarters. On the food side, the company adheres to the BC-end two-wheel drive, the B-side market share continues to expand, and multi-channel sales continue to grow. Among them, export channel sales increased by more than 30% over the same period last year. On the C-side, the company continued to increase its marketing side, making both online and offline efforts. In the first three quarters, C-side revenue increased nearly 20% year-on-year.
Investment advice:
As a leading domestic white feather chicken breeding enterprise, the company has achieved full industrial chain coverage. In 2024, the company consolidated its internal skills and reduced the cost of meat production. If the white feather chicken market picks up in 2025, the company is expected to give full play to its breeding and cost advantages and realize production capacity. The company is expected to achieve net profit of 0.65/1.24/1.45 billion in 2024-2026, with a year-on-year growth rate of -1.6%/89.1%/17.0%.
Referring to the 2024 ifind, a comparable white chicken breeding and prepared food company, the company's product sales growth rate is obvious, and there is some room for a valuation premium, giving the breeding business 28 times PE and the food business 35 times PE. The total corresponding 2024 target market value (farming+food) is 19.62 billion yuan, corresponding to the target price of 15.78 yuan for 6 months. Maintain a “buy-A” rating.
Risk warning: risk of fluctuating raw material prices; risk of outbreaks of poultry diseases; risk of chicken consumption falling short of expectations; food safety risks.
