2024Q3 理想汽车交付15.3 万辆，同比增长45.4%，对应实现汽车销售收入413.2亿元，同比增长22.9%，实现营业收入428.7 亿元，同比增长23.6%。理想汽车车型产品力及交付能力持续兑现，有望Q4 保持收入高增长。预计2024Q4 交付16-17万辆，预计实现收入432-459 亿元，全年实现交付50.2-51.2 万辆。Key points of investment
On October 31, 2024, Ideal Auto announced financial data for the third quarter. Ideal Auto delivered 0.153 million vehicles in the third quarter, up 45.4% year on year, achieving operating income of 42.87 billion yuan, up 23.6% year on year, achieving net profit of 2.82 billion yuan and non-GAAP net profit of 3.85 billion yuan.
2024Q3 delivery data reached a record high, and revenue grew rapidly
2024Q3 Ideal Auto delivered 0.153 million vehicles, up 45.4% year on year, corresponding to achieving automobile sales revenue of 41.32 billion yuan, up 22.9% year on year, and achieved operating income of 42.87 billion yuan, up 23.6% year on year. The product strength and delivery capacity of ideal car models continue to be realized, and it is expected that Q4 will maintain high revenue growth. It is estimated that 0.16-0.17 million vehicles will be delivered in 2024Q4, revenue of 43.2-45.9 billion yuan, and 0.502-0.512 million vehicles will be delivered throughout the year.
The scale effect led to an increase in gross margin. Short-term investment income fluctuations were 20.9% of Ideal Auto's gross margin of sales in 2024Q3, and the overall gross profit margin was 21.5%. This is mainly due to the significant increase in gross margin driven by the ideal L6 scale effect. On the cost side, 2024Q3 R&D/SG&A expenses were 2.59/3.36 billion yuan, respectively, -14.6%/19.8% month-on-month, and the R&D/SG&A cost rates were 6.0%/7.8%, respectively, down 3.5 pct/1.0 pct month-on-month, respectively. The 2024Q4 cost ratio is expected to decline further. Investment income was affected by fluctuations in investment companies' stock prices. Investment income for the single quarter was -0.022 billion yuan, down 0.392 billion yuan from 2024Q2, directly affecting net profit performance. The adjusted net profit was 3.85 billion yuan, up 11.1% year on year, and the performance was good.
Ecosystem construction is accelerating, and the smart electric strategy is expected to be implemented quickly
Smart driving functions are being promoted at an accelerated pace, and the OTA6.4 version was launched in October, including E2E and VLM intelligent driving solutions to optimize the user experience. The ecology has gradually improved. As of September 30, 2024, Ideal Auto has 479 retail centers across the country, covering 145 cities; 436 after-sales maintenance centers and authorized sheet spray centers, covering 221 cities. Ideal Auto has put into use 894 ideal overcharging stations across the country, with 4,286 charging stations.
Product strength leads smart driving upgrades, gross margin inflection point or
We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 147.3/205.4/280 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.0%/39.4%/36.3%, net profit to mother of 8.53/14.24/23.72 billion yuan, year-on-year growth rates of -27.1%/67.0%/66.6%, EPS 4.02/6.71/11.18 yuan/share, respectively, and a 3-year CAGR of 40.6%.
The company's product strength has been improved, intelligent electric acceleration, sales volume and profitability have been realized. Maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: The speed of intelligent implementation and ability to deliver sales falls short of expectations; the passenger car price war may affect subsequent sales.
