出海收入增速较快，前三季度收入同增69.80%。公司起家业务是风电变流器，由于电力电子技术同源，公司相继拓展了光伏逆变器和储能PCS 等产品，但由于公司在光伏、储能领域的起步较晚，而新能源的行业层面实质是光伏先出海、之后储能出海、现在是风电也在出海，故而相比阳光电源、锦浪科技等光伏逆变器为主营业务的公司，禾望电气的起家靠风电，风电又集中在国内，导致公司的光伏、储能等产品一直面临出海慢的问题，体现在业绩上为20-22 年这三年表现平淡。产品的出海，需要认证、渠道的开拓等，这些都需要时间和人员等的积淀，公司在三季度报表已经看到明显的起量，单Q3 出海收入0.76亿元，连续两个季度同比翻倍增长。Matters:
The company released its 2024 three-quarter report. In the first three quarters, it achieved revenue of 2.312 billion yuan, yoy -11.61%; net profit to mother of 0.253 billion yuan, yoy -36.91%; after deducting non-net profit of 0.263 billion yuan, yoy -17.74%. Among them, 24Q3 achieved revenue of 0.93 billion yuan, yoy -13.42%, qoq +11.63%; net profit to mother 0.099 billion yuan, yoy -50.43%, qoq -0.9%; deducted non-net profit of 0.1 billion yuan, yoy -33.11%, and qoq +8.18%.
The decline in both Q1-Q3 revenue and profit was mainly affected by changes in the shipping structure, increased cost investment, and changes in fair value. In terms of revenue, the new energy electronic control business revenue in the first three quarters was 1.802 billion yuan, yoy -13.41%, but the gross profit margin was 34.34%, yoy +2.84%. The decline in revenue and the increase in gross margin are mainly expected to be due to changes in the company's shipping structure, and some orders with low gross profit margins and poor payback payments were phased out. In terms of the cost ratio, due to the rigidity of some of the company's expenses and in order to further expand the business, the absolute amount of expenses other than management expenses increased year-on-year, leading to an increase in the cost ratio. In terms of changes in fair value, in 23Q3, the listing of the company's shareholding company Kaiwei brought in more fair value changes. However, as of the third quarter report this year, the amount of net income from changes in fair value of the company was -0.032 billion yuan, which increased the decline in net profit to the mother to a certain extent.
Overseas revenue grew rapidly, with revenue rising 69.80% in the first three quarters. The company's starting business was wind power converters. Since power electronics technology is the same, the company has successively expanded products such as photovoltaic inverters and energy storage PCS, but since the company started late in the field of photovoltaics and energy storage, the new energy industry level is essentially that photovoltaics first went overseas, then stored energy, and now wind power also went overseas, so compared to companies that mainly do business with photovoltaic inverters such as Sunshine Power and Jinlang Technology. As a result, the company's photovoltaic and energy storage products were concentrated at home. The slow problem is reflected in the three years of 20-22 in terms of performance The performance was lackluster. The export of products requires certification, channel development, etc., all of which require time and personnel accumulation. The company's third-quarter report has already seen a clear momentum. The Q3 export revenue alone was 0.076 billion yuan, doubling year-on-year for two consecutive quarters.
Investment advice: Despite the decline in the company's revenue, the company's gross margin did not fall but increased. Phased expenses and fair value changes only affected current performance. In the long run: on the one hand, in the photovoltaic field, “the logic that the cost advantage brought by single-tube parallel technology will bring the company an increase in market share” has not been broken. On the other hand, the company's overseas results were successively realized in the second and third quarters of this year. The relevant revenue base is small, there is great potential for subsequent growth, and due to its high overseas gross margin, it is expected to further drive the company's overall gross margin to rise. Therefore, although the company's performance fell short of expectations due to the increased intensity of domestic new energy competition at the industry level and due to the various reasons mentioned above, we are optimistic about the company's long-term development. The company's net profit for 2024-2026 is 0.425/0.547/0.623 billion yuan respectively (0.685/0.866 billion yuan before 24/25), and the current market value corresponds to 20/16/14 times PE, respectively. Referring to comparable company valuations, considering that the company's accelerated overseas progress may lead to a high increase in performance, 20x PE was given in 2025, corresponding to a target price of 24.6 yuan, maintaining the “strong promotion” rating.
Risk warning: The increase in market share falls short of expectations, overseas progress falls short of expectations, and energy storage development falls short of expectations.
