分产品看，24Q1-Q3 公司橱柜/衣柜及配套家具产品/卫浴/木门分别实现营业收入40.3/71.9/8.0/8.3 亿元，同比变化-21.99%/-18.99%/-1.62%/-17.10%；毛利率分别为30.62%/40.88%/29.01%/26.75%，同比变化-3.28pct/+5.72pct/+0.24pct/+4.31pct。Incident: The company released its three-quarter report. 24Q1-Q3 achieved operating income of 13.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.21%; realized net profit of 2.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.08%; and realized net profit deducted from non-mother of 1.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.88%.
Looking at a single quarter, 24Q3 achieved operating income of 5.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.21%; realized net profit of 1.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.56%; and realized net profit without deduction of 0.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.62%.
24Q1-Q3's consolidated gross margin was 35.54%, up 1.6 pct. The cost rate for the period was 19.71%, an increase of 2.2 pct. Among them, the sales/management/R&D/finance rate was 10.15%/6.66%/4.71%/-1.81%, respectively, with a year-on-year change of +1.5pct/+0.8pct/+0.2pct/-0.3pct.
By product, 24Q1-Q3's cabinets/wardrobes and supporting furniture products/bathroom/wooden doors achieved revenue of 40.3/7.19/0.8/0.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year change of -21.99%/-18.99%/-1.62%/-17.10%; gross margins were 30.62%/40.88%/29.01%/26.75%, respectively, a year-on-year change of -3.28pct/+5.72pct/+0.24pct/+4.31pct.
By channel, 24Q1-Q3's direct-run store/dealer/bulk business achieved revenue of 0.53/10.39/2.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year change of +4.09%/-18.90%/-12.33%; gross margins were 56.24%/35.59%/27.61%, respectively, a year-on-year change of -2.39pct/+1.53pct/+0.33pct. By the end of 24Q3, the total number of the company's stores was 8,180, a decrease of 536 from the end of 23. This was due to short-term fluctuations due to the adjustment of the company's dealer business plans and optimization of investment and distribution management policies.
Profit forecast and rating: Considering the decline in real estate, we lowered the company's 24-25 net profit from 2.9/3.1 billion yuan to 2.6/2.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year change of -14%/+4%. Referring to comparable companies, the PE valuation was 15-17 times in 25 years. The corresponding reasonable value range was 66.5-75.3 yuan, giving it a “superior to the market” rating.
Risk warning: downside risks in the real estate industry, risk of category and channel expansion falling short of expectations, risk of fluctuations in raw material prices, and intensification of industry competition.