大摩认为，随着促销增加，该公司毛利率同比和环比都降低，加上潜在的去杠杆化，认为第三季度经调整EBITDA率同比下降2.7个百分点至17.6%。因此，大摩下调对该公司2024-2026年销售预测6%，经调整纯利预测各降11%、9%、11%。预计2025年销售增加5%。由于其成本结构保持简单，预计经调整EBITDA率将恢复至18.2%。Morgan Stanley cuts sales forecasts for Samsonite for 2024-2026 by 6%, with adjusted net profit forecasts dropping by 11%, 9%, 11% respectively.
According to Zhongtong Financial APP, Morgan Stanley released a research report stating a 14.3% decrease in the target price for Samsonite (01910), from 35 Hong Kong dollars to 30 Hong Kong dollars, mainly due to a decrease in earnings per share forecasts. They maintain a 'shareholding' rating. In addition, Samsonite has repurchased 39 million shares since the beginning of the year, with expectations for the repurchase to continue.
Morgan Stanley anticipates a 5% and 18% decrease in sales and adjusted EBITDA for Samsonite in the third quarter of 2024. In the Asia region, China and India may be the primary drag. In North America, Morgan Stanley believes that third-quarter sales will be worse than second-quarter sales. Europe has shown better performance, but Morgan Stanley believes that sales growth is still slowing down.
Morgan Stanley believes that with increased promotions, the company's gross margin will decrease both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. Combined with potential deleveraging, they expect the third-quarter adjusted EBITDA margin to decrease by 2.7 percentage points year-on-year to 17.6%. Therefore, Morgan Stanley cuts sales forecasts for the company for 2024-2026 by 6%, with adjusted net profit forecasts dropping by 11%, 9%, 11% respectively. Sales are expected to increase by 5% in 2025. Due to its simple cost structure, they expect the adjusted EBITDA margin to recover to 18.2%.
