投资建议：预 计2024-2026年公司归母净利润为7.89亿元、10.03亿元、12.15 亿元，同比增长9.1%、27.1%、21.1%；对应2024-2026 年EPS 为3.02 元、3.84 元、4.66 元。结合PE 和PB 两种估值方法，基于审慎性原则给予公司对应2024 年3.31XPB，对应目标价为79.54元，首次覆盖，给予增持评级。Introduction to this report:
In recent years, the company's negative electrode business has accelerated its market share to catch up with the lead. The integrated layout has created product advantages and cost advantages, and deep cooperation with high-quality downstream customers has helped demand continue to grow, opening up room for the company's performance growth.
Key points of investment:
Investment advice: The company's net profit is expected to be 0.789 billion yuan, 1.003 billion yuan, and 1.215 billion yuan in 2024 to 2026, up 9.1%, 27.1% year-on-year; the corresponding EPS for 2024-2026 is 3.02 yuan, 3.84 yuan, and 4.66 yuan. Combining the two valuation methods of PE and PB, the company was given a rating of 3.31XPB in 2024 based on prudential principles, with a corresponding target price of 79.54 yuan. For the first time, it was covered for the first time, and an increase in holdings rating was given.
Deeply involved in the graphitization industry for more than ten years, the downstream layout has been transformed. The company was founded in 2008 and was initially engaged in graphitization processing services for artificial graphite anode materials. In 2017, the company moved from graphite processing to the downstream layout into the field of anode materials. With good product and cost advantages, it successively entered the supply chain of leading battery companies such as Ningde Times, ATL, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Honeycomb Energy, and Xiongtao Co., Ltd. After years of development, the company has become one of the few lithium-ion battery anode material manufacturers in the industry covering integrated production of all graphite processes such as crushing, granulation, graphitization, carbonization, and finished product processing.
The demand for electric cars and energy storage goes hand in hand, and the concentration of the anode industry is concentrated at the top. In the first three quarters of 2024, China shipped 1.49 million tons of anode materials, an increase of 24% over the previous year; among them, shipments of artificial graphite and natural graphite materials accounted for 86% of 1.28 million tons respectively. In the first three quarters of 2024, China's top 8 graphite anode materials accounted for 81% of total shipments, and the industry concentration was high. The top three are Betray, Shanshan Co., Ltd., and Zhongke Electric, with CR3 over half.
Among them, Zhongke Electric and Shangtai Technology have actively expanded production in line with customer needs in recent years to catch up faster.
Looking ahead, reducing costs and increasing efficiency will drive process exploration and concentration in the anode materials industry.
The integrated layout has created cost advantages, and the share of demand for new products has increased. The company combines its many years of experience in the graphitization and carbon industries, and is one of the few integrated anode enterprises in the industry that can achieve self-sufficiency in all processes (carbonization, granulation, graphitization, etc.). Since 2024, the company has achieved mass shipments of next-generation “fast charging” and “overcharging” performance and artificial graphite anode material products for new energy storage terminals, driving the company's anode material sales volume to rise sharply year-on-year. According to Xinyi's data, the company's market share increased from 9% in 2023 to 10% in the first three quarters of 2024, showing the company's good development momentum.
Risk warning: Sales of new energy vehicles fell short of expectations, and competition in the industry intensified.
