24 年Q3公司实现营业收入6.34 亿元，同比+104.33%，环比+34.61%；归母净利润0.62 亿元，同比+33.47%，环比+28.74%；扣非归母净利润0.50 亿元，同比+18.22%，环比-5.80%；Incidents:
Recently, the company released its 2024 three-quarter report. In Q1-Q3, the company achieved operating income of 1.533 billion yuan, +58.31% year over year; net profit to mother 0.149 billion yuan, -17.14% year over year; net profit after deducting non-return to mother 0.138 billion yuan, -10.97% year on year;
The gross profit margin of sales was 32.57%, -8.38pct; the net profit margin was 10.12%, -7.67pct; the net cash flow from operating activities was about 0.62 billion yuan, an increase of 1.552 billion yuan over the same period last year, a significant increase of 1.552 billion yuan over the same period last year.
In '24, Q3 achieved operating income of 0.634 billion yuan, +104.33% year over month, +34.61% month on month; net profit to mother 0.062 billion yuan, +33.47% year on year, +28.74% month on month; net profit without return to mother 0.05 billion yuan, +18.22% year on year and -5.80% month on month;
Gross profit margin 28.30%, YoY -11.66pct, -7.07pct; Net profit margin 11.08%, YoY -2.65pct, +1.47pct month-on-month.
ANALYSIS:
1. Reasons for the high revenue growth rate: Mainly due to the rapid increase in revenue from industrial and commercial energy storage systems and the gradual recovery of the overseas micro inverter market.
2. The reason for the relatively rapid increase in net profit to mother in 24Q3: mainly due to the increase in revenue, the increase in profit.
3. The reason for the sharp improvement in net cash flow from operating activities in the first three quarters was mainly due to an increase in the company's sales payments and a decrease in payment payments to suppliers.
Investment advice:
In the long run:
1) Microinverters and switchers: After a round of inventory digestion, the industry is expected to maintain a high growth rate in 24 years, and the company's new EZH1 product is more cost-effective and can help continue to expand the market share; 2) Energy storage: The company's household energy storage products have been sold in mainland China, America, Europe, Australia and other countries and regions, and industrial and commercial optical storage products have obtained multiple certifications issued by the Rheinland Group, and it is expected that they will gradually expand in the future based on channel reuse.
We adjusted the company's 24-25 revenue forecast from 5.38/8.72 billion yuan to 1.96/2.34 billion yuan, and adjusted net profit to mother from 1.35/2.24 billion yuan to 0.25/0.35 billion yuan, and added a 26-year forecast. The 26-year revenue is expected to reach 2.81 billion yuan and net profit to mother 0.42 billion yuan; the current market value corresponds to the 24-26 PE valuation to 36/25/21 times, respectively It is an “gain” rating.
Risk warning: New product sales fall short of expectations, inventory management risks, accounts receivable management risks, industry competition exacerbates risks.
