2024 前三季度公司收入和利润端同比下滑主要与去年同期基数较高、研发投入同比加大以及股权激励费用支付有关。2024Q1-3 公司销售费用率21.99%，同比增长6.69pct；管理费用率7.59%，同比增长2.65pct；财务费用率-2.46%，同比增长0.13pct；研发费用率9.80%，同比增长5.40pct，整体来看，公司加大市场推广力度和研发投入，加之收入端同比下降，造成销售费用率和研发费用率均有一定程度上涨。Incidents:
The company released its 2024 three-quarter report. 2024Q1-3 achieved operating income of 0.418 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27.39%; net profit to mother of 0.062 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 65.89%; net profit after deducting non-return to mother of 0.051 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 70.71%, and EPS of 0.1935 yuan.
Short-term performance is under pressure, and cost levels are rising
The year-on-year decline in the company's revenue and profit side in the first three quarters of 2024 was mainly related to the high base for the same period last year, the year-on-year increase in R&D investment, and payment of equity incentives. 2024Q1-3's sales expense ratio was 21.99%, up 6.69 pct year on year; management expense ratio was 7.59%, up 2.65 pct year on year; financial expense ratio was -2.46%, up 0.13 pct year on year; R&D expense ratio was 9.80%, up 5.40 pct year on year. Overall, the company increased its marketing efforts and R&D investment, and the revenue side declined year on year, causing the sales expenses rate and R&D expense ratio to a certain extent.
Hemodialysis equipment is growing steadily, and the leading position in the industry is stable
2024Q1-3's hemodialysis equipment continues to grow steadily. 2024H1 accounts for 10.35% of the hemodialysis equipment market, ranking first in the industry among domestic independent brands, accounting for 18.18% of the CRRT equipment market, and ranking first among domestic CRRT brands. The company continues to occupy a leading position in the blood purification equipment market. It is expected that as domestic substitution continues to accelerate, the company's hemodialysis machine products are expected to continue to grow rapidly.
The collection of hemodialysis consumables benefits and is expected to continue to grow rapidly
Currently, the company's consumables business has fully benefited from collection. It achieved relatively rapid growth in the first three quarters of 2024, and is expected to continue to achieve high growth in the future. At the same time, the company is increasing its marketing efforts, and is expected to achieve relatively rapid growth outside of the collection market. The company expands the hemodialysis consumables product line, collaborates with hemodialysis service centers, and builds an “Internet +” service model for equipment+medical+patient+dialysis centers. It has basically completed the overall layout of self-produced blood purification consumables, and collaborated with 6 hemodialysis chain service centers to lay the foundation for the company's long-term strategic development.
Investment advice and profit forecasting
The company is one of the leaders in the hemodialysis industry in China. Hemodialysis equipment continues to grow rapidly. Hemodialysis consumables are expected to be collected and released, so we are optimistic about the company's long-term development. It is estimated that in 2024-2026, the company will achieve operating income of 0.569 billion yuan, 0.733 billion yuan and 930 million yuan, respectively, and realized net profit of 0.108 billion yuan, 0.149 billion yuan and 198 million yuan respectively. The corresponding EPS is 0.34 yuan/share, 0.46 yuan/share, and 0.62 yuan/share, respectively. The corresponding PE is 32 times, 23 times and 18 times, respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning
The risk of the company's product price reduction, the risk of R&D falling short of expectations, and the risk of product release falling short of expectations.
