奶油产品增势迅猛，商超渠道依旧承压。分产品看收入，2024Q1-Q3 冷冻烘焙食品收入同比下降7%、收入占比58%，下降主要原因为商超渠道影响所致；烘焙食品原料收入同比增长30%、收入占比42%，其中奶油类产品同比增长超70%。分渠道看收入，2024Q1-Q3 流通渠道收入同比增长11%、收入占比55%，主要得益于稀奶油产品驱动及公司对头部经销商的政策支持；商超渠道收入同比下降10%、收入占比27%，公司将积极推进新品的储备及上新工作；餐饮、茶饮及新零售等创新渠道收入同比增长20%，收入占比18%。Description of the event
The company's total revenue for 2024Q1-Q3 was 2.717 billion yuan (+5.22%); net profit to mother was 0.203 billion yuan (+28.21%), after deducting non-net profit of 0.191 billion yuan (+31.32%). Among them, total revenue for 2024Q3 was 0.936 billion yuan (-1.11%); net profit to mother was 67.8333 million yuan (+35.07%), after deducting non-net profit of 66.5526 million yuan (+57.43%). 2024Q1-Q3 Company accrued an equity incentive share payment of $8.1572 million.
Incident comments
Cream products are growing rapidly, and supermarket channels are still under pressure. Looking at revenue by product, 2024Q1-Q3 frozen baked goods revenue fell 7% year on year, accounting for 58% of revenue. The main reason for the decline was due to the influence of supermarket channels; revenue from baked goods raw materials increased 30% year on year, accounting for 42% of revenue, of which cream products increased by more than 70% year on year. Looking at revenue by channel, 2024Q1-Q3 distribution channel revenue increased 11% year on year, accounting for 55% of revenue, mainly due to whipped cream product drivers and the company's policy support for leading dealers; supermarket channel revenue fell 10% year on year, accounting for 27% of revenue, and the company will actively promote the storage and delivery of new products; revenue from innovative channels such as restaurants, tea, and new retail increased 20% year on year, accounting for 18% of revenue.
The margin of gross margin fluctuation is manageable, and the cost ratio optimization effect is remarkable. The company's 2024Q1-3 net income margin increased 1.34pct to 7.47%, gross margin -0.36pct to 32.17%, and the period expense ratio -1.77pct to 22.51%, including sales expense ratio (-0.69pct), management expense ratio (-0.7pct), R&D expense ratio (-0.46pct), and financial expense ratio (+0.07pct). The 2024q3 net income margin increased by 1.94 pct to 7.25%, gross margin -0.55 pct to 31.34%, and the period cost ratio -3.7 pct to 21.36%, including sales expenses ratio (-2.19pct), management expense ratio (-0.98pct), R&D expense ratio (-0.67pct), and financial expenses ratio (+0.15pct). On the one hand, the decline in gross margin is affected by rising raw material costs, and on the other hand, it is also affected by changes in product structure (low gross margin of cream products). The company's sales and R&D expenses rate declined compared to the same period last year, mainly due to the company's strict implementation of the cost budget and the reduction or reduction of unnecessary expenses.
Since the third quarter, the company has mainly carried out the following work: First, the company's second UHT cream factory has completed verification and trial production, and will be officially produced in the fourth quarter to meet demand during the peak season at the end of the year. Second, all centers and departments continue to control expenses, establish fee control information systems, automate budget management and monitoring, and improve management efficiency. The third is to optimize supply chain management, integrate production, procurement and other functions, and improve the efficiency and competitiveness of the entire supply chain process.
Increase dividends to boost market confidence. The company's consolidated financial statements for the first three quarters of 2024 have undistributed profit of 0.712 billion yuan, and the parent company's financial statements have undistributed profit of 0.239 billion yuan. The company announced that it plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2 yuan (tax included) for every 10 shares to all shareholders, sending a positive signal to the capital market.
Profit forecast and investment advice: The company's net profit for 2024-2026 is expected to be 0.26, 0.326, and 0.383 billion yuan respectively; EPS is 1.54, 1.92, and 2.26 yuan respectively; the current PE is 23, 18, and 16X, respectively, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
1. Food safety risks;
2. The risk of fluctuations in raw material prices;
3. The risk of changes in consumer consumption preferences, etc.
