Polling data before the US election on Tuesday prompted some investors to cut back on the so-called 'Trump trade', leading to the largest drop in the US dollar index since the end of September, with US Treasury futures rising.

The polling numbers from last weekend showed that Harris might be leading in some swing states, prompting some investors to reassess their bullish bets on the US dollar. For a long time, the US dollar has been seen as the main bet for Republican candidate Trump's victory. Overall election situation remains tight with no clear winner.

IG Markets analyst Tony Sycamore wrote in a report: 'After the market priced the probability of the Republican election at around 42% over the weekend, this morning's market is less certain and rushed to unwind part of the premium on the 'US dollar Trump trade'.'

As of the release, the US dollar has fallen against all currencies of the G10 group. Asian currencies have also risen, with the Japanese yen and offshore yuan against the US dollar up by 0.6% and 0.4% respectively.

Corpay strategist Peter Dragicevich wrote in a report: 'The current situation seems to be a binary reaction. Given Trump's policy agenda, his victory could lead to a stronger dollar, while Harris's victory is expected to weigh on the dollar.'

According to the final poll by ABC News and Ipsos, Harris and Trump have national support rates of 49% and 46% respectively, while a survey released by The New York Times/Siena last Sunday showed Harris leading in five out of seven swing states.

A poll by The Des Moines Register shows Harris leading in Iowa with a 47% to 44% advantage - Trump has won Iowa in every previous election. This may be an outlier, but it suggests that Harris may succeed in winning the support of white voters in the Midwest.

Nevertheless, Harris' advantage in all surveys is within the margin of error, and a poll released by ABC News last Sunday shows a dead heat between both candidates at 49%-49%.

Both candidates' campaigns seem to be on a knife-edge: Harris delivered a speech at a church service, visited two Black-owned businesses, and spoke at Michigan State University, while Trump held rallies in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia.

Both candidates emphasized their competing economic agendas, with at least one consensus from the polls - the economy remains the voters' top concern.

At a rally in Lititz, Pennsylvania, Trump spent a significant amount of time implying without evidence that the electoral system, polling companies, and media are corrupt, conspiring against his campaign - a recent signal that the former president is preparing to challenge the election results if he fails. He even stated that he should not have lost the 2020 election to Biden and leave the White House. Trump's campaign team, citing his departure, refuted doubts about his role in the January 6, 2021, insurrection and whether he will accept this year's election results.

Trump spent a significant amount of time denouncing early voting, despite his advisors pointing out the high early voting turnout among Republican voters, indicating positive momentum for his campaign. He believes that voting should only take place on Election Day and results should be certified immediately that night.

Trump then claimed that he believes the U.S. voting system is worse than that of developing countries, complaining that his senior campaign aides need to focus their efforts on challenging the election procedures rather than on campaign expenses or rally locations.

An official from Harris's campaign team said in an interview with reporters last Sunday that the Republicans' challenge to thousands of ballots in Pennsylvania is doomed to fail, purely to delay the counting process and provide support for subsequent fraud allegations. The official said the ballots may be counted a few days after the election ends.

Harris believes that Trump has weakened her advantage among black voters. She visited the chapel of the Detroit Greater Emmanuel Institutional Church and told the congregation that black churches are crucial for driving national progress.

Trump, in seeking a broader voter coalition, emphasized the impact of inflation and some of Harris's progressive social policies. Surveys show that his support among black men is higher than any modern Republican candidate in history.

Harris plans to hold two rallies in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia to conclude her campaign, and will heavily rely on her celebrity supporters to boost attendance. In Pittsburgh, Katie Perry will headline a lineup including D-Nice and Andra Day. For Harris's final event in Philadelphia, Lady Gaga will headline the show, with bands like Roots and DJ Jazzy Jeff also performing. Talk show icon Oprah Winfrey and Ricky Martin will also attend.

In North Carolina, the campaign team will host a concert with singer-songwriter James Taylor, American Idol star Fantasia Barrino, and Remi Wolf. In Atlanta, 2 Chainz and Anthony Hamilton will host an event, with Usher giving a speech.