飞科品牌产品结构持续升级，博锐品牌仍处快速增长通道。久谦数据显示：（1）飞科品牌2024Q3 线上（京东+天猫+抖音）销售额同比-16%，但均价同比+8%。分品类上看，吹风机/剃须刀销售额同比分别+46%/-22%，剃须刀承压或系低端品线调整以及新品尚未承接所致。（2）博锐品牌2024Q3 线上销售额同比+50%，均价同比+15%。分品类上看，吹风机/剃须刀销售额同比分别+21%/42%，延续年初以来高增长趋势。近期公司便携式剃须刀新品成功上市，或有望承接小飞蝶带动飞科品牌营收恢复，关注后续飞科品牌改善带来业绩修复。2024Q3 performance is under pressure, waiting for new products to be launched to drive improved revenue performance and maintain a “buy” rating
2024Q1-Q3 achieved revenue of 3.32 billion yuan (-16.9%), net profit due to mother of 0.46 billion yuan (-43.8%), and net profit of non-attributable net profit of 0.38 billion yuan (-47.2%). 2024Q3 revenue was 1 billion yuan (-24.1%), net profit due to mother 0.15 billion yuan (-31.8%), net profit of non-return to mother 0.1 billion yuan (-51%). Considering that the short-term Feike brand is still affected by product line adjustments and the new pace of promotion, we lowered our profit forecast. We expect net profit of 0.651/0.739/0.819 billion yuan (the original value was 0.799/0.863/0.954 billion yuan) for 2024-2026, corresponding to EPS of 1.49/1.70/1.88 yuan, and the current stock price corresponds to PE24.9/21.9/19.8 times. On a long-term perspective, we continue to focus on the implementation of channel/product adjustments to drive the continued growth and improvement of the Feike brand. Maintain a “buy” rating.
The 2024Q3 Feike brand may still be affected by product line adjustments. New product launches focus on subsequent revenue recovery
The product structure of the Feike brand continues to be upgraded, and the vPro brand is still in a rapid growth channel. According to data from Jiuqian, the Feike brand's 2024Q3 online (JD+ Tmall + Douyin) sales were -16% year over year, but the average price was +8% year over year. By category, sales of hair dryers/shavers were +46%/-22% year-on-year, due to shavers being pressured or due to low-end product line adjustments and new products not being accepted. (2) In 2024Q3, the vPro brand's online sales volume was +50% year over year, and the average price was +15% year over year. By category, sales of hair dryers/shavers were +21%/42% year over year, continuing the high growth trend since the beginning of the year. Recently, the company's new portable shaver was successfully launched, and it may be expected to take on the Feike brand's revenue recovery, and focus on performance recovery brought about by subsequent Feike brand improvements.
2024Q3 Marginal improvement in gross margin, maintenance of high cost ratio measures
2024Q1/2024Q2/2024Q3 gross margins were 57.1%/54.1%/56.9%, respectively, and +1.0/-5.8/-0.4pct, respectively. The decline in gross margin narrowed/ increased month-on-month. On the cost side, the cost ratio for the 2024Q1/2024Q2/2024Q3 period was +9.7/+6.0/+7.3pct, respectively. Among them, the 2024Q3 sales/management/R&D/finance expense ratios were +5.4/+1.6/+0.2/+0.1 pct year over year, respectively, and sales expenses maintained a high strategy. Under the combined influence, the 2024Q1/2024Q2/2024Q3 companies' net interest rates were 15.3%/11.8%/14.5%, respectively, -8.0/-10.3/-1.7pct year-on-year, net interest rates after deducting non-return net interest rates -6.3/-7.9/-5.6 pct, and Q3 non-operating income as a share of revenue +4.4 pct year over year.
Risk warning: the expansion of new products/categories falls short of expectations; rising raw material prices; intensification of industry competition, etc.
