收现表现略好于收入，成本、费用负规模效应拉低净利。1）收现端，24Q3 季末公司合同负债余额2.1 亿元，同比/环比分别-0.4/-0.5 亿元，显示渠道回款信心偏弱；Q3 销售收现同比-57.9%，降幅略好于收入。2）利润端，24Q3 归母净利率同比-42.2pct 至-32.8%，主系成本、费用端刚性支出拖累。①24Q3 毛利率同比-11.6pct 至64.0%，主系收入大幅下降背景下的经营杠杆负贡献。②24Q3 销售费率同比+30.2pct 至66.3%，销售费用同降39.8%，1 是核心终端建设存在前置性投入，2 是销售费用围绕动销投放，但渠道主动去库背景下，收入表现不及动销。24Q3 管理费率(含研发)同比+15.2pct 至21.3%，费用同增14.0%至0.42 亿元，环比较24Q1、Q2 波动不大，增长主系职工薪酬相对刚性。Key points of investment
Incident: The company released its 24Q3 financial report. The first three quarters achieved revenue of 1.19 billion yuan, a decrease of 44.4%; net profit to mother was 0.056 billion yuan, a decrease of 88.2%. Revenue for the third quarter was 0.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 67.2%; net profit to mother was -0.065 billion yuan, a decrease of 213.7%. Q3 Revenue declined sharply, mainly due to the slowdown in sales in the industry, and the attitude of channel repayment and delivery became more cautious. The company put inventory and sales first.
Q3 channels have shrunk product selections, and repayments have become more cautious. The 24Q3 company achieved revenue of 0.2 billion yuan, a significant contraction of 0.5 billion yuan compared to Q2 revenue. 1. Since Q2, liquor sales have generally been under pressure, channel cash turnover has slowed, and active storage sentiment has become stronger; 2. The company has promoted cost reforms, channel profit distribution has reduced cascaded rebates, increased bottle-opening rewards, and the enthusiasm of dealers to press goods has weakened. By product: ① The Q3 revenue decline is expected to be less volatile than H1. During the year, the inventory of the old version was gradually digested, while the Jiachen edition controlled the price and was delivered as needed; in the context of the general decline in demand for high-end wine in Q3, sales were difficult, and the company did not force repayment. ② Alcoholics expect the Q3 revenue decline to be significantly larger than H1. In 2024, the company clearly strengthened the model market and core terminal construction. The Red Temple banquet scene in the province began to improve, but the market outside the province still needed to be adjusted and purified, and Q3 payments slowed down with the industry. ③ The main reason for the fluctuation in the growth rate of Xiangquan and other series was that domestic products were rapidly released in the early stages and inventory digestion was promoted in stages.
Revenue performance was slightly better than revenue, and negative scale effects of costs and expenses lowered net profit. 1) On the revenue side, the company's contract debt balance at the end of the 24Q3 quarter was 0.21 billion yuan, or -0.04/-0.05 billion yuan, respectively, indicating weak channel repayment confidence; Q3 sales revenue was -57.9% year-on-year, and the decline was slightly better than revenue. 2) On the profit side, net profit margin for 24Q3 was -42.2pct to -32.8% year-on-year, hampered by rigid expenses on the main cost and expense side. ① 24Q3 gross margin -11.6pct year-on-year to 64.0%, negative contribution from operating leverage against the backdrop of a sharp decline in main revenue. ② The 24Q3 sales rate was +30.2pct to 66.3% year-on-year, and sales expenses also decreased by 39.8%. 1 is that there is upfront investment in core terminal construction, and 2 is that sales expenses revolve around marketing, but in the context of active channel removal, revenue performance is not as good as sales. The 24Q3 management rate (including R&D) was +15.2pct to 21.3% year-on-year, and the cost increased by 14.0% to 0.042 billion yuan. Compared with 24Q1 and Q2, the increase was relatively rigid.
Profit prediction and investment rating: In the current environment, the company continues to firmly promote the transformation of the marketing model, focusing on the Shenzhen domestic market and building a model market. The next stage will also focus on breakthroughs and in-depth exploration to provide accurate services to key markets and key customers. As terminal construction and BC linkage results gradually become apparent, it is expected that the company's revenue scale will stop falling and stabilize. Considering the further weakening of channel repayment intentions, we adjusted net profit from 2024 to 2026 to 0.06, 0.07, and 0.13 billion yuan (previous values were 0.31, 0.35, 0.43 billion yuan), compared to -89%, +16%, and +87%. The current market value corresponds to PE of 271, 234, and 125 times, maintaining a “gain” rating.
Risk warning: Uncertainty about the positive pace of the economy; food safety risks; adjustments by alcoholics outside the province fall short of expectations; competition for high-end wine exceeds expectations.
