On November 4th, Financial Association News (Editor Hu Jiarong) benefited from the positive market, Hong Kong stock autos continued to rebound. As of the publication deadline, Xpeng-W (09868.HK), Leapmotor (09863), Geely Auto (00175.HK), BYD Company (01211.HK) rose by 5.76%, 5.16%, 5.06%, 4.97% respectively.

Note: Performance of auto stocks.

On the news front, there is good news in the new energy autos industry recently, with companies like Li Auto Inc announcing their October sales data. Nio Inc delivered 20,976 autos in October, a 30.5% year-on-year increase; Li Auto Inc delivered 51,443 new autos, a 27.3% year-on-year increase; Xpeng delivered 23,917 units of smart electric autos, setting a new record for monthly deliveries, with a 20% year-on-year increase and a 12% month-on-month increase.

It is worth noting that the delivery data for September announced by new energy auto companies also showed a positive growth trend. With various local governments launching scrappage subsidies and replacement policies, many enterprises achieved year-on-year and month-on-month growth, indicating that September is not a slow sales season. Li Auto Inc, Leapmotor, and Xpeng all reached new highs in monthly deliveries, Nio Inc delivered over 0.02 million autos for 5 consecutive months, and Xiaomi Auto's monthly sales volume has exceeded ten thousand units for 4 consecutive months.

In addition, a major focus in the market is on the electric vehicle anti-subsidy case. On October 25th, after Minister Wang Wentao held a video conference with EU Commissioner and Executive Vice President Dombrovskis on Trade, the China-EU technical team immediately launched a new phase of negotiations on the EU's price commitments for anti-subsidies on electric vehicles to China. After intensive communication, the EU expressed readiness to continue negotiating on the specific content of the proposal. China welcomed this and hoped that the next round of negotiations could reach a solution acceptable to both parties based on the principles of pragmatism and balance.

Policy positives driving the consumption upgrade in the autos industry

In addition to the above positives, the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission recently pointed out the need to promote the renewal of various types of production equipment, service equipment, and technological upgrades, encourage traditional consumer goods such as autos and household appliances to be traded in for new ones, and promote the replacement of durable consumer goods. This policy positive is expected to drive the growth of demand for consumption upgrades in the autos industry, constituting a positive development for the sector's growth.

Cinda Securities pointed out that before the current round of the old-for-new policy exits, coupled with the peak season for year-end car consumption, the sales growth rate is expected to further increase, bringing excess returns to the sector. At the same time, approaching the end of the year, the market may anticipate the 2025 policy in advance. It is expected that if the old-for-new policy continues or other new policies are introduced, it will provide better support for car consumption in 2025, and the excess returns situation is expected to continue. However, without relevant stimulating policies, car sales in early 2025 may come under pressure.