投资建议：考虑到餐饮业整体需求疲弱影响，下调 2024-2026 年EPS预测为0.9（-13%）/1.01（-11%）/1.11（-9%）元，结合2025 年行业平均的18xPE 以及自营门店后期爬坡提升及月饼业务稀缺性定位，给予2025 年高于行业的19xPE，上调目标价为19.2 元（+11%），维持增持评级。Introduction to this report:
The performance was in line with expectations. Considering that the mooncake business sales disclosure was in line with expectations and the industry's large market orders declined slightly, overall sales remained flat year over year in line with expectations. Focus on channel broadening and the upward progress of the catering business.
Key points of investment:
Investment advice: Considering the impact of weak overall demand in the restaurant industry, the 2024-2026 EPS forecast was lowered to 0.9 (-13%) /1.01 (-11%) /1.11 (-9%) yuan, combined with the 2025 industry average of 18xPE and the late-stage climbing increase in self-operated stores and the scarcity position of the mooncake business, giving 2025 19xPE higher than the industry, and raising the target price by 19.2 yuan (+11%) to maintain the increase rating.
Performance summary: 2024Q1-3 achieved revenue of 4.1 billion yuan/ +6%, gross profit of 1.36 billion yuan/ -4%, gross profit of 0.448 billion yuan/ -9%, after deducting non-return of 0.434 billion yuan/ -9%; single 2024Q3 achieved revenue of 2.19 billion yuan/ +2.3%, of which mooncake/quick-frozen/catering revenue was 1.41/0.23/0.37 billion yuan, year-on-year, +0/-5/+17pct, gross profit 0.865 billion yuan/ -4.6%, gross profit margin 39.49% /-2.84pct, tax and additional/sales/management/R&D/finance rate -1.27/-0.16/-0.37/ -0.2pct, period expense ratio -1.66pct year-on-year, profit margin 0.39 billion yuan/ -5.3%, profit margin 17.8% /-1.4pct, profit margin 17.5% /- 1.23pct
The performance was in line with expectations. The actual performance of the mooncake business was in line with expectations. Considering that the company disclosed that mooncake sales volume was +1.5% compared to the lunar calendar in mid-September, actual mooncake sales remained flat year-on-year in line with expectations. Due to the structural decline in mooncake revenue (24Q3 64.31% vs. 23Q3 65.71%), the profit side remained flat in line with expectations; single 2024Q3 food manufacturing channels split direct sales/distribution year-on-year, accounting for 36/ 64%, respectively; YoY ratio- 19/-6/ -25%, accounting for 72/27/ 1%, respectively. The decline in the overall food business growth rate was mainly due to the drag down in the off-season quick-frozen business.
Focus on channel expansion and restaurant business climbing. Considering that restaurants are mainly directly managed and are still expanding in single digits every year, profit margins are still being dragged down by consumption downgrading+high-end positioning. Pay attention to store opening plans and climbing progress. Channels outside the province are still being broadened, and East China and other regions are contributing increasing.
Risk warning: Recovery progress after the epidemic falls short of expectations, food safety issues, and weak demand.
