产品周期等因素致游戏业务仍承压，Q3 游戏经营业绩环比改善且已回正1）由于24Q3 上线新游较少，叠加老游戏受产品生命周期影响，游戏充值流水较上年同期有所下滑，24Q3 公司游戏业务实现营收12.2 亿（同比-27.1%/环比-10.6%）；2）因被投资企业亏损，游戏业务确认投资损失近1.2 亿元，叠加收入回落，游戏业务Q3实现扣非净亏损0.95 亿元。剔除该等投资损失的影响后，游戏业务的经营业绩环比改善且已经回正（Q2 游戏业务扣非净亏损为0.56 亿元）。Description of the event
Perfect World disclosed its 2024 three-quarter report. In 24Q3, the company achieved revenue of 1.313 billion yuan (-24.36% YoY, -8.25% month-on-month), net loss of 0.212 billion yuan, after deducting non-net loss of 0.213 billion yuan. The year-on-year loss changed and the month-on-month loss margin increased. Among them, the game business achieved non-net loss of about 0.095 billion yuan in Q3.
Incident comments
The game business is still under pressure due to factors such as the product cycle. Q3 game business performance has improved month-on-month and has recouped 1) Due to the fact that there are few new games launched in 24Q3, the game recharge flow declined compared to the same period of the previous year. 24Q3's game business achieved revenue of 1.22 billion yuan (-27.1% /month-on-month -10.6%); 2) Due to losses from invested companies, the game business confirmed an investment loss of nearly 0.12 billion yuan, compounded revenue decline. The game business achieved a non-net loss of 0.095 billion yuan. Excluding the impact of such investment losses, the operating performance of the game business improved month-on-month and has been corrected (Q2 game business deducted non-net loss of 0.056 billion yuan).
Losses in the film and television business due to reasons such as the low number of movies and TV series broadcast
1) There are still relatively few film and television productions broadcast and confirmed revenue in 24Q3. The company's film and television business achieved revenue of 0.08 billion yuan this quarter (+141.1% YoY/+50.7% month-on-month); however, due to sales prices of some movies and TV dramas being lower than expected, the film and television business achieved non-net loss of 0.087 billion yuan in Q3, and the loss increased compared to the first half of the year.
2) Or due to losses in the film and television business and good performance of e-sports games, the share of e-sports games with relatively low gross profit increased and the film and television business dragged down profit margins, and the company's Q3 gross profit fell to 51.8% year-on-month.
Key products are well stocked, and key new tours such as “The World of Immortals” and “Alien Ring” are worth looking forward to? The company is steadily advancing the R&D, testing and launch of classic categories represented by “World of Immortals” and trendy new products represented by “Different Rings”. Among them, “World of Immortals” began a “implementation test” on October 18. The test performance was outstanding, and it is expected to be launched within the year; “Another Ring” held an offline closed trial on September 22, and recruitment for the “Singularity Test” has now started.
In addition, reserve products such as “Immortals 2,” “Let the Savages Fly,” and “Code Z” are also being actively developed.
Profit forecast and investment advice: We predict that the company's net profit for 2024-2026 will be -0.45 billion yuan, 0.51 billion yuan, and 0.87 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to the 2025-2026 PE of 37.8 times and 22.4 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning
1. Risk that product version approval, launch progress and flow performance fall short of expectations; 2. Industry regulatory risks;
3. Competition in the game industry intensifies risks;
4. The profit forecast assumption is unfounded or falls short of the expected risk.
